Re: The Other Student Roster
Posted: Sun Jun 21, 2020 7:10 am
Final Twenty-Five SOTF Recap/Ranking:
As promised, what follows is a slightly more in-depth discussion of each of the remaining twenty-five students, serving as a recap and a summary intended both for those who've busily followed the whole time and for newcomers who were intimidated by the size of the original roster but now wish to get involved. In each entry, time is given to charting the path through the game that the contestant has taken so far, to distilling the essence of their potential, and to speculating on their fate, especially when it comes to paths towards success or failure.
It bears emphasizing that everyone on this list has outlasted well over a hundred of their peers. Each one holds a possible route to the end, and the degrees of separation are frequently small and transient. While the roster has seen fantastic success to this point, nobody can truly prophesize these final days.
That said, each student is given a mark corresponding to their projected prospects: + for those with the greatest potential, = for the uncertain or mixed bags, and - for those with the biggest hurdles to overcome.
Abe Watanabe +:
Abe represents probably the single greatest underestimation of the initial roster, though this was quickly corrected as he made his potential obvious through a string of "liberations" of supplies. A consummate pragmatist, Abe has survived the dissolution of multiple groups, often scurrying away with more provisions and weaponry than he had to begin with. While on the surface, this opportunistic behavior seems to cast him in an antagonistic role relative to his fellow survivors, Abe's other quiet talent comes from his social game. He's proven remarkably adept at talking others down, connecting with groups and riding them until they're no longer advantageous before jumping ship, and his comparative lack of direct violence leaves him with few active foes—his one victim was his own closest connection, and the circumstances can be easily spun in his favor without even lying that much. His low body count also leaves him primed to be underestimated by those who think him easy pickings, especially given all the practice we've seen him put in honing his reflexes.
For Abe, the path to success looks like a lot more of the same. He needs to keep his head down, abandon ship before things go bad, and take the shot when the time comes, without hesitation. The obstacles in his path are largely internal; it is clear that the death and suffering has weighed on him some, and his caution has potential to flare up to an excessive degree, leading to hesitation at a moment he can't afford it. His relatively unimpressive combat track record also suggests that he should not be fighting directly; he needs to close out confrontations with the opening salvo, or else he risks being outclassed. Finally, Abe has a few lingering potential enemies left in this final span, and while Marco wasn't much to worry about back when they woke up, things look fairly different as the end approaches. Nevertheless, Abe is one of the figures in the best shape among those remaining, and can give anyone else a run for their money.
Ace Ortega +:
When it comes to Ace, the story we tell is one of contradictions and perseverance. In the early stages of the game, Ace seemed primed to take a morally clean role, though even this was challenged by his choice of ward. What could be mistaken for Ivy sinking her claws into him, however, would soon be revealed as a slightly different situation: the mask came off, and Ace's more negative qualities were revealed, notably a selfish streak and a tendency towards impulsive action or costly inaction, often directly contrary to that called for by the situation. Leaving a trail of bodies behind him, both those of the girls who tried to help him and the opponents who stood in his way, Ace has emerged as a force to watch, but not one who can be cleanly predicted. Now at the end, it seems clear that he hopes to go all the way, and from all we've seen of him to this point, it seems equally clear he has a chance.
Ace is a physical threat, but not an entirely dominant one. He's seen a lot of action and taken his share of knocks, including several fairly superficial gunshot wounds (insofar as such things may ever be deemed minor) and a serious blow to the head. While he can probably go toe to toe with many of those left, what Ace needs to do if he wants to prevail is pick his moments carefully, not get dragged into constant scraps or diverted by battles without clear stakes. His impulsive nature may give him the edge to clinch improbable victories, but it may just as easily steer him wrong and see him in over his head... and at this point in the game, you don't get to make many mistakes. On the whole, he's in better shape than not, as his path has taught him the perils of hesitation and those pesky morals and social ties fall away one by one.
Anna Herbert -:
Roxanne—as she would surely prefer to be known in just about every context, even one such as this—is currently a girl unmoored. Somewhat uniquely, she spent the majority of the game in the company of Marceline, dedicating herself to assisting that girl in the pursuit of her ends. From the start, this has revealed a certain troublesome lack of ambition and autonomy; Roxanne wants to do something worthwhile with her remaining time, but can't figure out what it is, and she seems to have difficulties viewing herself as the star of even her own show. It's an odd predicament for someone whose stated ambitions otherwise run in a vein I'd almost term hedonistic, and it has manifested in her failing to stand up for herself or use any of the tools at her disposal even under pain of potential death, walking away only because others fail to call her bluff.
Put simply, Roxanne needs to get her ass in gear and decide she actually wants it, or else her survival will be entirely by fluke. She's well-equipped, but that means absolutely nothing if she's not going to use her weapon, and it's unclear she even totally knows how. She's stared death in the face unblinking, but never bothers to try to push it away, instead relying on its goodwill. Well, those days are almost gone, and the only way Roxanne won't be buried with them is if she drastically reassess her approach and mentality.
Arizona Butler +:
One of the two remaining in-game members of the legendary basketball team, Arizona is a natural competitor, driven and capable. She's approached her predicament with pragmatism, but also has displayed a core emotional drive to do right by those she cares about. This kept her in check in the early days, as she first sought out and then stayed with her boyfriend, Jonah, dodging trouble even if it meant abandoning allies. This all changed when the pair agreed to hunt down Quinn, one of Arizona's teammates and at the time one of the biggest threats in play, and while the twists and turns since then have seen her take some major knocks, including the twin losses of Jonah and teammate Shauna, they have done little to hinder Arizona in any physical capacity. If anything, each incident removes another inhibition holding her back.
The problem with being unrestrained, of course, is that you can easily end up biting off more than you can chew. Arizona is competitive and all-in, and while that can see her incredibly successful at feats few of her classmates would ever even think to attempt, such as going gunning for the most dangerous figures left in play, it can also lead to unfortunate misfires such as Garren's killing. And, at the end of the day, forcing confrontations and action means rolling the dice with your life, again and again. Yes, Arizona has a capability in that arena almost unparalleled among the other survivors, but one or two instances of bad luck can do a lot to level the odds. And then there's that despair she showed at the very start, threatening to rear its head again if she ever truly lacks a direction.
Aurelien Valter =:
It's fitting, in many ways, that Aurelien follows Arizona, because with just a few different turns their paths could be swapped. On the very first day, he lost the object of his affections before any reunion could come about, and ever since he's been looking to avenge Dante. This grim task is complicated further by a somewhat cynical willingness to let any other killers who make themselves convenient stand in for the one who took him out, and yet despite such a broad mandate, Aurelien's group has struggled to achieve anything of note; the feather in their collective cap is polishing off Marco Volker, who was just about dead already. The recent loss of long-term companion and group moral compass Henry Sparks leaves Aurelien and Morgan untethered, possibly all set to cause trouble for others, but possibly just to get into it themselves.
What Aurelien brings to the table that Morgan does not, and the reason for his comparatively greater ranking, is physical competence. While he suffered a somewhat crippling wound to the hand while fighting Marco, Aurelien is still fit, driven, and capable of giving somebody a very, very bad day... especially with little left to hold him back. At the same time, we've seen him chasing the wrong ideas before, and his drive for action, vengeance, and efficacy is so strong it is almost inevitable that it sends him straight into harm's way should the opportunity present itself. Ironically, he's probably best served by more of the same: an endless search that never bears fruit, right up until it's late enough that one last blaze of glory is all that's required of him.
Blaise d'Aramitz -:
Blaise has always fancied themself a trickster, but has long worn it so openly and smugly that the only ones who fall prey to them are those who almost want to be duped. Fortunate for them, then, that almost everyone they've encountered has fallen into this category. Not a single one of their kills has come as the result of an actual fight, and many of their numerous victims have simply stood and accepted death—a reasonable enough route to escaping their presence, but not the only option. Throughout, their egotism has spiked to ever-greater degrees, and they seem to be convinced that their apparent success stems from something of their own doing rather than simple capitalization on an astounding string of opportunities... leaving themself the greatest victim of their own deceptions.
What Blaise has not factored in, and one of the biggest obstacles they face—aside from their lack of physical threat—is that in carving their path of destruction they have incensed a vast number of well-armed and vengeful individuals who have also survived until this point. Bluntly, what Blaise needs is for the streak to never end, for everyone else to trip each other up in such a way that Blaise can pick up the pieces. But that isn't their style, and they constantly try to recapture the magic, the illusion of control that comes with being the one to put the period to some pathetic schmuck's sentence. This late in the game, however, there aren't so many easy picks left, leaving their continued success generally a matter of chance... and of course, they have managed to pick up some injuries anyways, which makes their questionable physical capacity an even larger factor.
Christina Rennes =:
While Renz has held a lofty position on the list for much of the game's run, she is now in a similar boat as our next entry. A perennial drifter, she has hopped between groups often, much like Abe, but has failed to extract notable benefit from the process. In hindsight, her best run was likely with the group including Forrest, Connor, and Amelia, because while everyone there was crazy or blatantly scheming against each other, Renz's specific manner let her pass comparatively undetected. Now, she's left to either take a mulligan and try to build up from scratch yet again, or to accept a group that has built-in loyalty towards each other and distrust towards her... and that's if they'll even take her. And whatever the case, time is running out to position for the final stretch.
While weapons mean remarkably little in most circumstances, we're quickly approaching the stage where everyone left will be armed—Renz herself has already experienced this in her recent breakfast encounter—and her social graces are adequate at best. If she'd managed to wrangle something better, she'd get that nifty little plus sign, but, as it is, all the will in the world won't do you any good if you lack the means to put it into practice. More than that, Renz is relatively untested, having experienced and seen little violence directly; her mental state has been highly stable and consistent, but there remains a chance that things will suddenly get too real and she'll just crumple under the pressure. Then again, if she does manage to secure a more viable group or some decent equipment, she's right back to being one to watch. That's her game plan for success: gear up, group up, then throw everyone else under the bus.
Connor Lorenzen =:
Much like Christina, Connor has made it a long way through careful handling of his peers, all the while without ever getting into too much direct personal trouble, bar that one incident where he was forced to perform first aid at the end of an unloaded gun. Rather uniquely, until the most recent moments of the game, Connor has left every alliance on his own terms, often abruptly and without warning. Despite a string of seemingly-promising partners who felt odd in the moment to abandon, here in the final stretches Connor is alive and unhurt and most of them are not. In theory, Connor is exactly where he wants to be, in control and well-prepared, and indeed his path to date has justified his holding the highest rank in the roster since the very first update.
And yet. You see, now, in the final stretches, Connor cannot keep doing what he's been doing. He can't ditch groups before they implode; there are almost no groups left to find. He can't slip off and hide; there are fewer places to go by the day. He's in great physical shape, which to an extent mitigates the equipment problem, and he's charming and socially savvy, both descriptors you'd be hard-pressed to apply to Renz, but what she has and he lacks is that clear killer edge, the willingness to seize a moment and wring the life from it for all you're worth. Connor is a sneak, but he's the same sneak he was back in school, able to walk between mutually-exclusive social groups with ease, but not able to slip a knife into somebody's back. These past days have been a lesson, and I don't think he's learned it yet. If he has? Great. Then we're talking—then he's a serious threat to take it all. But easy street isn't the school of hard knocks, and Connor stands to once again find himself left unprepared courtesy of a sort of affluenza.
Daria Bhatia -:
At present, likely the biggest trophy on Daria's shelf is her having survived close personal encounters with several of the bigger killers in play. The ability to talk a major threat out of murdering you is not to be underestimated, and she's done so despite an attitude which is anything but sycophantic. Aside from that, Daria's primary goal has been spiting those in power, doing whatever she can to be boring, to express disrespect for the very concept of the game, to live a life worth living regardless of her circumstances. In theory, there are worse ways to make a statement, not to mention substantially more suicidal ones, but in practice this all means that Daria has no real resources, a limited understanding of the arena, and a goal which is seemingly incompatible with survival. And you never know when she's going to decide to go out in a blaze of impotent protest glory.
All this, of course, means her odds of being the ultimate survivor are quite poor indeed. It does not, however, means she's necessarily at imminent risk. As the numbers shrink and the noose fails to tighten at the same pace, hunkering down becomes a more viable strategy, and Daria is a pro at that. Being boring and disrespectful throws away some potential strategic information, but keeps morale high, and she has so far at least shown enough respect for the rules to avoid actual self-destruction. Her fate will be determined by her ability to keep out of trouble, and by how her ideology interacts with reality when it's finally truly put to the test.
Darlene Silva =:
Quiet and under-the-radar before the game, in her time on the island Darlene has drawn rather more attention. While she hasn't killed anyone at this stage, she set Beryl's downfall in motion back at the beginning of the game, and the ripples from that are still playing out. Since then, she's spent most of her time in groups with friends and acquaintances of varying descriptions and degrees of closeness, often finding herself in a sort of team morale role, but at any given moment there's often this edge of uncertainty. She has at points displayed a certain capacity for violence and cleverness, and as the number of people she legitimately cares about dwindles, there may be fewer things holding her back.
Darlene's greatest asset is likely her status as a dark horse contender; there are probably members of the top twenty-five who aren't even aware she was on the trip. This, plus an unpredictable demeanor and a history of taking potshots at people, leaves her with some real potential to blindside somebody. On the other hand, she's not a big physical threat, has poor aim, is woefully indecisive, and any malice she has in her is pretty sporadic, which means the odds are just as good she fizzles out or coasts over a cliff with her group of the moment.
Diego Larrosa +:
One of the interesting things about Diego is that, while he was in many ways easy to overlook in the earlier stages of the game, his explosion into later prominence should be no surprise to anyone who was paying attention. From the time he saw Ty's first kill onwards, it's been clear that he's had some end in mind, and his willingness to gamble on partnerships with some of the most aggressive, dangerous figures in play just underscores how badly he wants to be the one to make it out. Slowly but surely, he has picked up momentum, stealing his first kill from Lorenzo, finding himself forced to put down a friend for the second, but then breaking through into flat-out unprovoked attacks from a distance. Now, Diego's one of the faces to watch, and at the same time he's one the others may not see coming.
First off, while he doesn't have too many shots left, Diego's grenade launcher is one of the great equalizers in play. A good shot from that, and someone's getting reduced to a faint red mist, possibly from far enough away that they are never even aware of his presence. You can be smart or quick or strong or socially-savvy and have it mean nothing because you were out of cover at the wrong time, and that's something few other contestants can offer. But even beyond this, Diego's secret weapon is that he wants to win, badly. Yes, in theory everyone is chasing that same end, but the only other person who seems to have mulled things as seriously and come to such a certainty is Marceline. Backed into a corner, I expect Diego to bite, kick, and scratch until the bitter end... and sometimes enough of that can push that ending further down the road, maybe even indefinitely.
Erika Stieglitz +:
If you watched the first day and then check out until now, you'd likely be extremely surprised to discover that Erika has become the biggest killer by a substantial margin. A slow start, focused seemingly on helping others, was undercut even at the time by nebulous motives and shifty behavior, as Erika planted the seeds that led to numerous other students' undoing, though this was easy enough to miss for the casual viewer. When she finally got her hands on a weapon with real potential, Erika revved up to an almost unstoppable pace, often dispatching her foes from a distance or prevailing against steep odds. This continued unabated until she started to take some punishment in return, and a pair of painful injuries coupled with a traumatizing attempt to put down a friend seem to have at least momentarily tempered her violent impulses, though the fact remains that she has proven herself time and again.
Erika is most likely the pound-for-pound greatest threat in a straight up fight with enough room to shoot. One of the few students who really knows her way around guns, Erika takes this a step further through her direct experience with violence to this point. Her quieter spell has probably allowed some of her peers to get complacent, and while she's surely mortal like anyone else—especially should she fall afoul of an ambush—her capacity for devastation is just as surely not so diminished as might be thought by the tapering of murders. Indeed, there's a real chance she's been acting strategically, keeping an ally close at hand while she recuperates, conserves her strength, and readies herself for the final push.
Faith Marshal-Mackenzie +:
Faith is one of the three remaining students who have been on the top of my list since the first day, and she has more in common with Arizona than she does with Connor by now. That is, of course, not even touching the direct comparison she and the latter are so helpfully drawing for us at the time of this writing. Faith's story has been one of disadvantages and setbacks, as she was robbed, taken captive, and shunted from group to group without ever getting her feet under her. And yet, for that, Faith retains the strength of character and the go-getter attitude that managed to propel her to a prominent position in the class hierarchy despite a number of her peers not caring much for her at all. Faith is constantly on the cusp of achieving her true potential, and it seems like she too has finally realized it.
And what potential is that? Well, first off, Faith commands a lot of respect from her classmates, whether or not they care for her personally. Her lack of kills to this point will likely work in her favor, too; she's one of the few who could potentially give Erika a run for her money if properly equipped, so that she hasn't done so is more clearly a choice rather than some deficiency, giving her room to prove her intention. And, naturally, it is a choice that only a lack of armament keeps her from changing at a moment's notice. While that lack is certainly a hurdle to overcome, it's not insurmountable, especially for one so hard to keep down as Faith, and even if she clings to the righteous path, she represents a legitimate threat for the more predatory of her opponents.
Garnet Barnes =:
Don't let Garnet's recent partnership with Erika fool you, she's anything but a simple and willing accessory to murder. To understand how she fell into her current predicament, I think one has to go all the way back to the start of the game, when Garnet set out to bring the violence to a halt. While an opportunity to put her theories to the test came quickly, she found herself unable to cross into killing even in order to stop killing, and this failing has dogged her ever since, as time and again she seizes upon a new target and time and again she finds that, if she won't bring things to a terminal conclusion, she has little else in the tank. Her current state, then, lands somewhere between acceptance and custody; she was not trying to kill, cripple, or rob Erika, yet at the same time for the duration of their association, Erika did not kill. Has Garnet, then, finally figured it out on some level? And what does her departure mean?
But of course, the catch is that a total unwillingness to kill leaves one up a creek when the point of the game is killing each other. While this could see Garnet written off, however, I think that would be a little simplistic; sure it may well be her undoing, but she's proven surprisingly malleable and adaptable in the past. She finally did pull the trigger when faced with Yuka, and that frustration and desperation to make an impact isn't going to get smaller with time. I think the hardest part for Garnet may be the idea that her efforts could come to nothing, that she could debase herself yet still have it be for naught. Run the clock low enough, and those worries get fainter, and while I don't think she has a blatant murder in her, I'd not be surprised to see her manage one especially opportune moment of vigilante justice.
Justin Greene =:
One of the less likely prolific killers, Justin draws most of his success from that very trait; he looks harmless, and in the moment he tends to act it, too, right up until he doesn't. Still, the first impression can be the strongest, and in Justin's case his very first impulse was to crack Benny's skull. What he brings in terms of base, instinctual violence, however, he pays off in terms of catching the other side of fights. Justin has been so badly messed up by now that there's a small but not insignificant chance he simply drops dead from the punishment he's received. Time will tell how it goes, but it seems unlikely he has it in him to adjust course to compensate for his diminished abilities—he certainly has not proven overly adaptable so far.
For Justin, success looks like finding people too stupid to take him seriously or too injured to overpower him. This bears a certain resemblance to the Blaise situation, but Justin's horrible injuries may actually give him a leg up. He's made his way so far by playing at weakness, and while actual weakness is an unfortunate substitute, it still can do the trick in a pinch, and is responsible for two of his last three kills. What bodes less well for him is continued action and continued prominence; maybe a quarter of the remaining game knows exactly who he is and what he's done, and if he meets any of those people on even terms he's likely screwed. It might actually be in his favor to lapse into a coma for a day or so, so he doesn't get in his own way by picking still more pointless battles.
Katelynne Kirkpatrick =:
Katelynne's story is one of overcoming adversity, but an argument can certainly be made that she did so entirely in spite of herself. After considering hurling herself to her death in the opening stages, she was misled and taken advantage of by Quinn and Blaise, surviving through a combination of the intervention of others and being too worthless to kill—an impression certainly not dispelled by the significant mistakes she made leading directly to Bert's death. But after joining up with Princess, and folding into a larger group, Katelynne was able to find her footing to a greater degree, forging actual emotional bonds and finding herself a valued member of the team. That's all over now, however. She's the last survivor of her alliance, paired only with newcomer Marco, who she is not particularly close to. It's a tough predicament, but not an insurmountable one.
The question, of course, is this: did the group change Katelynne for the better, or merely enable her best side to show through? She should certainly hope for the former, because if she's going to last, she'll have to pull out the stops and remain focused for the rest of the game. Poor equipment, a bad provision situation, and a noted tendency to fall afoul of nefarious forces work against Katelynne. Heart, one of the best allies in play, and these periodic flashes of cleverness and inspiration are her tools. She's unlikely to rise above the middle of the pack unless something major happens, but she could easily plummet in the rankings if it starts to look like all the substance under the surface died along with Princess.
Katrina Lavell -:
Once upon a time, it seemed like Katrina had potential. A bad turn on the first day saw her kill an ally by accident, and from that point on she devoted herself to making things right... or so she claimed. Her plans, ambitions, and process all pointed to a possible much darker path, however, one in which she was using an ostensibly-selfless aim to cover up a consolidation of power and to mask her intentions, alluded to at various points, to go all the way. Well, that's the past—the deaths of Yuka and Tyrell have, unless Katrina is a far better actress than there's any reason to believe, revealed that the plan too stupid to be real was in fact her ultimate desire. Since then, she's buried her head in the sand as Willow slices bits off corpses, mulls alleged murders out loud, and generally reveals herself to be an unstable, dangerous traveling companion, not to mention a pathological liar.
The first thing that may absolutely fuck Katrina at any given moment, then, is that her closest ally is completely unpredictable and turns on a dime. If Willow decides to kill Katrina on a whim, it's almost certain to happen. Even if it doesn't, Katrina's mental state is not good. She's been despondent for quite a long while, and every moment of real drive or ambition has been to some degree or other focused on the end of self destruction. Her best weapon is almost impossible to wield easily. For her to find enduring success will require a total paradigm shift, monstrous amounts of luck, or the revelation that she's been running the longest and most subtle con of the entire game.
Kelly Nguyen -:
On the first day, Kelly chose to trust and was sent for a swim due to that mistake. She hasn't repeated it since. Clever, ruthless when she needs to be, and in tune with her peers and their secrets, Kelly would be a top contender were it not for the fact that a series of bad encounters have left her absolutely mangled and maimed. Her poisoning trick—one of the most smoothly-executed of such gambits we've seen—ultimately sealed the fates of everyone present, though she only took direct credit for one. She wrangled her way out of vigilante justice, turned her jailor into a willing companion, navigated a web of shifting allegiances, and finally put him down when their paths crossed again. But she has this tendency to approach situations as social first and foremost, and it's cost her far more than I think she was ever prepared to pay.
Take, for example, the hand that was roughly hacked off in that fight with Lucas. Even aside from the loss of capability represented by such a crippling, there are further lingering concerns. Her attempts to stem the blood flow have been haphazard and intermittent, leaving her likely closer to death than she even realizes. There's the risk of infection, which might claim her even if she does make it all the way. And this is not unique; the hand was badly-damaged even before, much like her face, much like her mind. What's left for Kelly to go back to? How much of her can return? Where so many others saw a bad move end their lives, with Kelly it merely killed her potential and future, but barring a miracle the rest of her will catch up before too long.
Marceline Carlson +:
Here we have the opposite of so many of the stories that have been spun over the course of the game: Marceline rises from the ashes of a hideously dependent relationship and a later harebrained quest for vengeance to show some real promise. When Dolly died, it was likely only due to one of their last conversations touching on that exact contingency that Marceline didn't blow herself away. Her days spent hunting killers with Roxanne at her side were as unsuccessful as they were dreary, with the closest thing to progress being the first serious blow to Kelly, who as we've noted still draws breath. When Marceline finally pushed herself to commit to something more, she lost faith and bungled it. But destiny gave her a second chance, and while it hasn't been perfect, she has laid out the makings of a real path of destruction.
Coming to it this late, naturally, is in itself an advantage, because few others will see it coming. While her prize for Amelia's murder was likely more a detriment than a boon in a number of ways, particularly in singling her out for such mediocre reward, it still doesn't negate the blindside potential, and her picking up Nick is clear evidence of that. Marceline knows her way around weapons, has a mind for tactics, and has a drive to push ever on. Of course, there is an extra wrinkle: we've seen her motivation plummet and her momentum grind to a halt before, and if anything of the sort happens at this late stage, all that work she's done to better herself is just more incentive for her foes to descend upon her like jackals. But as long as she keeps together, she's a serious and unexpected contender.
Marco Hart +:
Where Marceline made an abrupt turn to self-serving violence, Marco—who is rather inextricably tied to her now through Nick—has followed an opposite yet equally promising course. At the start of the game, he was deep in delusion, unable or unwilling to process the fate that had befallen the class, and keen to run from the truth. Reality reasserted itself as he killed Kayla, and he seemed poised to lose control entirely and use violence as a first resort... up until he met up with Nick. In the days since, the two cultivated a deep bond and a supportive relationship, honing instinctual fury into a sort of pragmatism with lingering room for empathy. Their low-profile path served them well for a time, even as they left the caves were they spent so many days, but it all came to an end today, when Marceline forced them from their new stronghold and took Nick's life.
Marco's biggest risk right now is that he is so shaken and disturbed by the loss of his partner that he relapses into mindless violence or shuts down and lets someone get the better of him without resistance. I don't think he will, though. The lessons he's learned and the struggles he's faced don't disappear just because his closest companion is gone, and his intelligence, drive, and legitimate motivation to go beyond this place and find a life he can properly live are all powerful. A quiet game doesn't mean a careless one, and Marco has a tactical knack not to be underestimated. And a slight equipment deficiency means less for him than others, because he's proven himself able to work around it and make do.
Matthew Hunt =:
On paper, Matthew shouldn't be doing nearly as well as he is. Other contestants have varying social games, but Matthew's has consistently been saying the absolute worst thing at any given moment, enraging his own allies, and getting abandoned. At the very beginning of the game, Connor took one look at him and split. After gaining about as much credit as possible by working Faith out of a hostage situation, he squandered all his goodwill through insensitively mocking her loss. A slightly more successful venture with Angie and Shauna ended with both of their deaths. Now, he's poised to reunite with some of those former friends who have the most reason to doubt him.
And yet, in a way, all of that's an asset. Matthew reliably puts his foot in his mouth, but he also reliably manages to get clear of trouble, and he's passably trustworthy when it comes to keeping guard. After all he's been through, he's never attempted unprovoked murder, and he's shown a willingness to do what he has to in order to stay safe, while still holding actual loyalty. He's also armed to the teeth with the fruits of his last big conflict, which gives him a whole lot of value as a pick-up for one of those people being held back only by their lack of equipment. Will it take him all the way? Not incredibly likely—he really does seem deficient in that killer instinct. But it leaves him in much better shape than a number of his peers, and there's always room for him to pivot and surprise.
Morgan Dragosavich -:
Morgan's continued survival seems solely to spite the odds, but despite the temptation to get him out of my hair for good by shoving him to the top only for him to inevitably die immediately, I'll leave him where he belongs. Morgan started his game by being beaten until he pissed himself and then robbed, and while things have improved at points from that lowly origin, the tone hasn't varied too much. He's managed to reunite with friends now and then, including Michael and his own girlfriend, Lizzie Lebowski. The one time both were there with him at the same time led to Lizzie's death, more or less at Morgan's hand, though it was she who fired the final shot. Since then, a broken and uncertain Morgan has followed Henry and Aurelien, all aboard their scheme to find some meaning, in this case by tracking down Michael one last time.
Morgan's carrying a lot of guilt, drive, and expectation, and absolutely none of it is aimed in constructive directions. A quest to search out and rumble with the remaining killers becomes ever more pointless as the numbers dwindle; surely by now it's best to let them take care of each other and lay low to pick off the weakened survivor. Michael is in fact not what Morgan seems to think he is, and we've seen that lead to hesitation already. Unlike Aurelien, Morgan has no particular physical attributes working in his favor. About the only reliable point he does have is his ability to persist against all reason, and while I fully expect that to remain true by this point, it's not the sort of thing you adjust the odds for.
Stephanie McDonald -:
Stephanie has been through a lot, has seen some really major mental and emotional changes, and yet no matter the form she takes at any given moment, the constant factor is her status as a useless lump. While her reunion with Jessica brought her brief happiness, and their separation notable anxiety, the real shifts came after their second encounter and Jessica's subsequent suicide. A broken Stephanie wandered until she was picked up and put back together by Max and Darlene, but all she did with that was follow them into danger, where she failed to help. After she was abandoned, she linked up with Daria, and the two have been playing house ever since, relatively unmolested by outside forces, and apparently uninterested in improving their situation in any material way.
Stephanie lacks in weaponry, mentality, and experience. Her only ally is more concerned with spiting the people holding the remote controls that can kill both of them in a heartbeat than she is with trying to stay alive. Stephanie herself is rather clingy, and seems to be at best loosely stable. Really, what's kept her going as long as she has seems to be that their chosen hideout is just not on anyone's radar—a side effect, no doubt, of the vast island space relative to the small number of surviving students. As soon as she returns to reality, or reality returns to her, she'll likely find herself entirely over her head, and with precious little to bail her out.
Willow O'Neal =:
Now this is an interesting case. Willow is a lying opportunist, but the opportunities she prizes most tend to be those to inflict mayhem rather than those suited to bettering her tactical position. Her early game plan was a reasonably grounded robbery shtick, but since then she's branched into collecting body parts and hurling corpses from heights. Despite her clear social shortcomings, Willow has managed to retain a solid cast of allies, including Roxie, who was killed by a bullet meant for someone else; Sierra, whose heart Willow carved out after the girl sustained mortal injuries; and Katrina, who is too stupid to run for the hills despite the fates of her two former companions. Willow has slowly brought the pot to a boil, and the frog sitting in it has yet to realize just how warm the water truly is.
In her back pocket, Willow has Katrina's completely sincere and utterly misguided belief in the pregnancy scam, which has my vote for the most absurdly hilarious ongoing deception of the entire game. She also has the cleaver she just traded Zach for, which is likely to be of greater use to her than an archaic and unwieldy gun. Her attitude is suitably ruthless... but are her goals? There's a very real chance that Willow chases her tail right off a cliff after those bodies she's been throwing, simply because it seems amusing at the time. She's also been lucky in her targets—while not to the same extent as, say, Blaise or Justin, she has mostly been dealing with suckers ready and willing to accept her misdirection, and if she runs up against a dedicated skeptic or someone equally wily, she may be in trouble.
Zachary Beck -:
The path Zach has charted through the game has been equal parts winding and chaotic. While he at first planned to follow a relatively pragmatic approach, finding shelter and hunkering down, his involvement in the lighthouse debacle saw him blamed for a death he was trying to prevent. This in turn led him to abandon a promising group including a friend, striking out on his own and racking up another kill in equally muddled circumstances. By the time he reunited with the group, they were hesitant to trust him, and further deception and misunderstanding led to him striking out solo yet again, now with less weaponry. Finally turning to active predation, Zach sealed Forrest's fate though ducked the credit, but the harrowing experience seems to have left him more inclined to pick his battles with some care; when last we saw him, he split off from Katrina and Willow after falling victim to the latter's deception.
Zach is the softest of the bottom tier, placed there not for any fundamental deficiency but rather for his tendency towards half measures and walking back his decisions. He got the worse end of his bargain with Willow and likely doesn't know it, he has a handful of enemies still gunning for him, and his reputation as untrustworthy actually predates the island. He might be able to turn it around, and he's had flashes of real inspiration, but for now at least he's someone who's going to have to do more work than the others if he wants to stay in play.
As promised, what follows is a slightly more in-depth discussion of each of the remaining twenty-five students, serving as a recap and a summary intended both for those who've busily followed the whole time and for newcomers who were intimidated by the size of the original roster but now wish to get involved. In each entry, time is given to charting the path through the game that the contestant has taken so far, to distilling the essence of their potential, and to speculating on their fate, especially when it comes to paths towards success or failure.
It bears emphasizing that everyone on this list has outlasted well over a hundred of their peers. Each one holds a possible route to the end, and the degrees of separation are frequently small and transient. While the roster has seen fantastic success to this point, nobody can truly prophesize these final days.
That said, each student is given a mark corresponding to their projected prospects: + for those with the greatest potential, = for the uncertain or mixed bags, and - for those with the biggest hurdles to overcome.
Abe Watanabe +:
Abe represents probably the single greatest underestimation of the initial roster, though this was quickly corrected as he made his potential obvious through a string of "liberations" of supplies. A consummate pragmatist, Abe has survived the dissolution of multiple groups, often scurrying away with more provisions and weaponry than he had to begin with. While on the surface, this opportunistic behavior seems to cast him in an antagonistic role relative to his fellow survivors, Abe's other quiet talent comes from his social game. He's proven remarkably adept at talking others down, connecting with groups and riding them until they're no longer advantageous before jumping ship, and his comparative lack of direct violence leaves him with few active foes—his one victim was his own closest connection, and the circumstances can be easily spun in his favor without even lying that much. His low body count also leaves him primed to be underestimated by those who think him easy pickings, especially given all the practice we've seen him put in honing his reflexes.
For Abe, the path to success looks like a lot more of the same. He needs to keep his head down, abandon ship before things go bad, and take the shot when the time comes, without hesitation. The obstacles in his path are largely internal; it is clear that the death and suffering has weighed on him some, and his caution has potential to flare up to an excessive degree, leading to hesitation at a moment he can't afford it. His relatively unimpressive combat track record also suggests that he should not be fighting directly; he needs to close out confrontations with the opening salvo, or else he risks being outclassed. Finally, Abe has a few lingering potential enemies left in this final span, and while Marco wasn't much to worry about back when they woke up, things look fairly different as the end approaches. Nevertheless, Abe is one of the figures in the best shape among those remaining, and can give anyone else a run for their money.
Ace Ortega +:
When it comes to Ace, the story we tell is one of contradictions and perseverance. In the early stages of the game, Ace seemed primed to take a morally clean role, though even this was challenged by his choice of ward. What could be mistaken for Ivy sinking her claws into him, however, would soon be revealed as a slightly different situation: the mask came off, and Ace's more negative qualities were revealed, notably a selfish streak and a tendency towards impulsive action or costly inaction, often directly contrary to that called for by the situation. Leaving a trail of bodies behind him, both those of the girls who tried to help him and the opponents who stood in his way, Ace has emerged as a force to watch, but not one who can be cleanly predicted. Now at the end, it seems clear that he hopes to go all the way, and from all we've seen of him to this point, it seems equally clear he has a chance.
Ace is a physical threat, but not an entirely dominant one. He's seen a lot of action and taken his share of knocks, including several fairly superficial gunshot wounds (insofar as such things may ever be deemed minor) and a serious blow to the head. While he can probably go toe to toe with many of those left, what Ace needs to do if he wants to prevail is pick his moments carefully, not get dragged into constant scraps or diverted by battles without clear stakes. His impulsive nature may give him the edge to clinch improbable victories, but it may just as easily steer him wrong and see him in over his head... and at this point in the game, you don't get to make many mistakes. On the whole, he's in better shape than not, as his path has taught him the perils of hesitation and those pesky morals and social ties fall away one by one.
Anna Herbert -:
Roxanne—as she would surely prefer to be known in just about every context, even one such as this—is currently a girl unmoored. Somewhat uniquely, she spent the majority of the game in the company of Marceline, dedicating herself to assisting that girl in the pursuit of her ends. From the start, this has revealed a certain troublesome lack of ambition and autonomy; Roxanne wants to do something worthwhile with her remaining time, but can't figure out what it is, and she seems to have difficulties viewing herself as the star of even her own show. It's an odd predicament for someone whose stated ambitions otherwise run in a vein I'd almost term hedonistic, and it has manifested in her failing to stand up for herself or use any of the tools at her disposal even under pain of potential death, walking away only because others fail to call her bluff.
Put simply, Roxanne needs to get her ass in gear and decide she actually wants it, or else her survival will be entirely by fluke. She's well-equipped, but that means absolutely nothing if she's not going to use her weapon, and it's unclear she even totally knows how. She's stared death in the face unblinking, but never bothers to try to push it away, instead relying on its goodwill. Well, those days are almost gone, and the only way Roxanne won't be buried with them is if she drastically reassess her approach and mentality.
Arizona Butler +:
One of the two remaining in-game members of the legendary basketball team, Arizona is a natural competitor, driven and capable. She's approached her predicament with pragmatism, but also has displayed a core emotional drive to do right by those she cares about. This kept her in check in the early days, as she first sought out and then stayed with her boyfriend, Jonah, dodging trouble even if it meant abandoning allies. This all changed when the pair agreed to hunt down Quinn, one of Arizona's teammates and at the time one of the biggest threats in play, and while the twists and turns since then have seen her take some major knocks, including the twin losses of Jonah and teammate Shauna, they have done little to hinder Arizona in any physical capacity. If anything, each incident removes another inhibition holding her back.
The problem with being unrestrained, of course, is that you can easily end up biting off more than you can chew. Arizona is competitive and all-in, and while that can see her incredibly successful at feats few of her classmates would ever even think to attempt, such as going gunning for the most dangerous figures left in play, it can also lead to unfortunate misfires such as Garren's killing. And, at the end of the day, forcing confrontations and action means rolling the dice with your life, again and again. Yes, Arizona has a capability in that arena almost unparalleled among the other survivors, but one or two instances of bad luck can do a lot to level the odds. And then there's that despair she showed at the very start, threatening to rear its head again if she ever truly lacks a direction.
Aurelien Valter =:
It's fitting, in many ways, that Aurelien follows Arizona, because with just a few different turns their paths could be swapped. On the very first day, he lost the object of his affections before any reunion could come about, and ever since he's been looking to avenge Dante. This grim task is complicated further by a somewhat cynical willingness to let any other killers who make themselves convenient stand in for the one who took him out, and yet despite such a broad mandate, Aurelien's group has struggled to achieve anything of note; the feather in their collective cap is polishing off Marco Volker, who was just about dead already. The recent loss of long-term companion and group moral compass Henry Sparks leaves Aurelien and Morgan untethered, possibly all set to cause trouble for others, but possibly just to get into it themselves.
What Aurelien brings to the table that Morgan does not, and the reason for his comparatively greater ranking, is physical competence. While he suffered a somewhat crippling wound to the hand while fighting Marco, Aurelien is still fit, driven, and capable of giving somebody a very, very bad day... especially with little left to hold him back. At the same time, we've seen him chasing the wrong ideas before, and his drive for action, vengeance, and efficacy is so strong it is almost inevitable that it sends him straight into harm's way should the opportunity present itself. Ironically, he's probably best served by more of the same: an endless search that never bears fruit, right up until it's late enough that one last blaze of glory is all that's required of him.
Blaise d'Aramitz -:
Blaise has always fancied themself a trickster, but has long worn it so openly and smugly that the only ones who fall prey to them are those who almost want to be duped. Fortunate for them, then, that almost everyone they've encountered has fallen into this category. Not a single one of their kills has come as the result of an actual fight, and many of their numerous victims have simply stood and accepted death—a reasonable enough route to escaping their presence, but not the only option. Throughout, their egotism has spiked to ever-greater degrees, and they seem to be convinced that their apparent success stems from something of their own doing rather than simple capitalization on an astounding string of opportunities... leaving themself the greatest victim of their own deceptions.
What Blaise has not factored in, and one of the biggest obstacles they face—aside from their lack of physical threat—is that in carving their path of destruction they have incensed a vast number of well-armed and vengeful individuals who have also survived until this point. Bluntly, what Blaise needs is for the streak to never end, for everyone else to trip each other up in such a way that Blaise can pick up the pieces. But that isn't their style, and they constantly try to recapture the magic, the illusion of control that comes with being the one to put the period to some pathetic schmuck's sentence. This late in the game, however, there aren't so many easy picks left, leaving their continued success generally a matter of chance... and of course, they have managed to pick up some injuries anyways, which makes their questionable physical capacity an even larger factor.
Christina Rennes =:
While Renz has held a lofty position on the list for much of the game's run, she is now in a similar boat as our next entry. A perennial drifter, she has hopped between groups often, much like Abe, but has failed to extract notable benefit from the process. In hindsight, her best run was likely with the group including Forrest, Connor, and Amelia, because while everyone there was crazy or blatantly scheming against each other, Renz's specific manner let her pass comparatively undetected. Now, she's left to either take a mulligan and try to build up from scratch yet again, or to accept a group that has built-in loyalty towards each other and distrust towards her... and that's if they'll even take her. And whatever the case, time is running out to position for the final stretch.
While weapons mean remarkably little in most circumstances, we're quickly approaching the stage where everyone left will be armed—Renz herself has already experienced this in her recent breakfast encounter—and her social graces are adequate at best. If she'd managed to wrangle something better, she'd get that nifty little plus sign, but, as it is, all the will in the world won't do you any good if you lack the means to put it into practice. More than that, Renz is relatively untested, having experienced and seen little violence directly; her mental state has been highly stable and consistent, but there remains a chance that things will suddenly get too real and she'll just crumple under the pressure. Then again, if she does manage to secure a more viable group or some decent equipment, she's right back to being one to watch. That's her game plan for success: gear up, group up, then throw everyone else under the bus.
Connor Lorenzen =:
Much like Christina, Connor has made it a long way through careful handling of his peers, all the while without ever getting into too much direct personal trouble, bar that one incident where he was forced to perform first aid at the end of an unloaded gun. Rather uniquely, until the most recent moments of the game, Connor has left every alliance on his own terms, often abruptly and without warning. Despite a string of seemingly-promising partners who felt odd in the moment to abandon, here in the final stretches Connor is alive and unhurt and most of them are not. In theory, Connor is exactly where he wants to be, in control and well-prepared, and indeed his path to date has justified his holding the highest rank in the roster since the very first update.
And yet. You see, now, in the final stretches, Connor cannot keep doing what he's been doing. He can't ditch groups before they implode; there are almost no groups left to find. He can't slip off and hide; there are fewer places to go by the day. He's in great physical shape, which to an extent mitigates the equipment problem, and he's charming and socially savvy, both descriptors you'd be hard-pressed to apply to Renz, but what she has and he lacks is that clear killer edge, the willingness to seize a moment and wring the life from it for all you're worth. Connor is a sneak, but he's the same sneak he was back in school, able to walk between mutually-exclusive social groups with ease, but not able to slip a knife into somebody's back. These past days have been a lesson, and I don't think he's learned it yet. If he has? Great. Then we're talking—then he's a serious threat to take it all. But easy street isn't the school of hard knocks, and Connor stands to once again find himself left unprepared courtesy of a sort of affluenza.
Daria Bhatia -:
At present, likely the biggest trophy on Daria's shelf is her having survived close personal encounters with several of the bigger killers in play. The ability to talk a major threat out of murdering you is not to be underestimated, and she's done so despite an attitude which is anything but sycophantic. Aside from that, Daria's primary goal has been spiting those in power, doing whatever she can to be boring, to express disrespect for the very concept of the game, to live a life worth living regardless of her circumstances. In theory, there are worse ways to make a statement, not to mention substantially more suicidal ones, but in practice this all means that Daria has no real resources, a limited understanding of the arena, and a goal which is seemingly incompatible with survival. And you never know when she's going to decide to go out in a blaze of impotent protest glory.
All this, of course, means her odds of being the ultimate survivor are quite poor indeed. It does not, however, means she's necessarily at imminent risk. As the numbers shrink and the noose fails to tighten at the same pace, hunkering down becomes a more viable strategy, and Daria is a pro at that. Being boring and disrespectful throws away some potential strategic information, but keeps morale high, and she has so far at least shown enough respect for the rules to avoid actual self-destruction. Her fate will be determined by her ability to keep out of trouble, and by how her ideology interacts with reality when it's finally truly put to the test.
Darlene Silva =:
Quiet and under-the-radar before the game, in her time on the island Darlene has drawn rather more attention. While she hasn't killed anyone at this stage, she set Beryl's downfall in motion back at the beginning of the game, and the ripples from that are still playing out. Since then, she's spent most of her time in groups with friends and acquaintances of varying descriptions and degrees of closeness, often finding herself in a sort of team morale role, but at any given moment there's often this edge of uncertainty. She has at points displayed a certain capacity for violence and cleverness, and as the number of people she legitimately cares about dwindles, there may be fewer things holding her back.
Darlene's greatest asset is likely her status as a dark horse contender; there are probably members of the top twenty-five who aren't even aware she was on the trip. This, plus an unpredictable demeanor and a history of taking potshots at people, leaves her with some real potential to blindside somebody. On the other hand, she's not a big physical threat, has poor aim, is woefully indecisive, and any malice she has in her is pretty sporadic, which means the odds are just as good she fizzles out or coasts over a cliff with her group of the moment.
Diego Larrosa +:
One of the interesting things about Diego is that, while he was in many ways easy to overlook in the earlier stages of the game, his explosion into later prominence should be no surprise to anyone who was paying attention. From the time he saw Ty's first kill onwards, it's been clear that he's had some end in mind, and his willingness to gamble on partnerships with some of the most aggressive, dangerous figures in play just underscores how badly he wants to be the one to make it out. Slowly but surely, he has picked up momentum, stealing his first kill from Lorenzo, finding himself forced to put down a friend for the second, but then breaking through into flat-out unprovoked attacks from a distance. Now, Diego's one of the faces to watch, and at the same time he's one the others may not see coming.
First off, while he doesn't have too many shots left, Diego's grenade launcher is one of the great equalizers in play. A good shot from that, and someone's getting reduced to a faint red mist, possibly from far enough away that they are never even aware of his presence. You can be smart or quick or strong or socially-savvy and have it mean nothing because you were out of cover at the wrong time, and that's something few other contestants can offer. But even beyond this, Diego's secret weapon is that he wants to win, badly. Yes, in theory everyone is chasing that same end, but the only other person who seems to have mulled things as seriously and come to such a certainty is Marceline. Backed into a corner, I expect Diego to bite, kick, and scratch until the bitter end... and sometimes enough of that can push that ending further down the road, maybe even indefinitely.
Erika Stieglitz +:
If you watched the first day and then check out until now, you'd likely be extremely surprised to discover that Erika has become the biggest killer by a substantial margin. A slow start, focused seemingly on helping others, was undercut even at the time by nebulous motives and shifty behavior, as Erika planted the seeds that led to numerous other students' undoing, though this was easy enough to miss for the casual viewer. When she finally got her hands on a weapon with real potential, Erika revved up to an almost unstoppable pace, often dispatching her foes from a distance or prevailing against steep odds. This continued unabated until she started to take some punishment in return, and a pair of painful injuries coupled with a traumatizing attempt to put down a friend seem to have at least momentarily tempered her violent impulses, though the fact remains that she has proven herself time and again.
Erika is most likely the pound-for-pound greatest threat in a straight up fight with enough room to shoot. One of the few students who really knows her way around guns, Erika takes this a step further through her direct experience with violence to this point. Her quieter spell has probably allowed some of her peers to get complacent, and while she's surely mortal like anyone else—especially should she fall afoul of an ambush—her capacity for devastation is just as surely not so diminished as might be thought by the tapering of murders. Indeed, there's a real chance she's been acting strategically, keeping an ally close at hand while she recuperates, conserves her strength, and readies herself for the final push.
Faith Marshal-Mackenzie +:
Faith is one of the three remaining students who have been on the top of my list since the first day, and she has more in common with Arizona than she does with Connor by now. That is, of course, not even touching the direct comparison she and the latter are so helpfully drawing for us at the time of this writing. Faith's story has been one of disadvantages and setbacks, as she was robbed, taken captive, and shunted from group to group without ever getting her feet under her. And yet, for that, Faith retains the strength of character and the go-getter attitude that managed to propel her to a prominent position in the class hierarchy despite a number of her peers not caring much for her at all. Faith is constantly on the cusp of achieving her true potential, and it seems like she too has finally realized it.
And what potential is that? Well, first off, Faith commands a lot of respect from her classmates, whether or not they care for her personally. Her lack of kills to this point will likely work in her favor, too; she's one of the few who could potentially give Erika a run for her money if properly equipped, so that she hasn't done so is more clearly a choice rather than some deficiency, giving her room to prove her intention. And, naturally, it is a choice that only a lack of armament keeps her from changing at a moment's notice. While that lack is certainly a hurdle to overcome, it's not insurmountable, especially for one so hard to keep down as Faith, and even if she clings to the righteous path, she represents a legitimate threat for the more predatory of her opponents.
Garnet Barnes =:
Don't let Garnet's recent partnership with Erika fool you, she's anything but a simple and willing accessory to murder. To understand how she fell into her current predicament, I think one has to go all the way back to the start of the game, when Garnet set out to bring the violence to a halt. While an opportunity to put her theories to the test came quickly, she found herself unable to cross into killing even in order to stop killing, and this failing has dogged her ever since, as time and again she seizes upon a new target and time and again she finds that, if she won't bring things to a terminal conclusion, she has little else in the tank. Her current state, then, lands somewhere between acceptance and custody; she was not trying to kill, cripple, or rob Erika, yet at the same time for the duration of their association, Erika did not kill. Has Garnet, then, finally figured it out on some level? And what does her departure mean?
But of course, the catch is that a total unwillingness to kill leaves one up a creek when the point of the game is killing each other. While this could see Garnet written off, however, I think that would be a little simplistic; sure it may well be her undoing, but she's proven surprisingly malleable and adaptable in the past. She finally did pull the trigger when faced with Yuka, and that frustration and desperation to make an impact isn't going to get smaller with time. I think the hardest part for Garnet may be the idea that her efforts could come to nothing, that she could debase herself yet still have it be for naught. Run the clock low enough, and those worries get fainter, and while I don't think she has a blatant murder in her, I'd not be surprised to see her manage one especially opportune moment of vigilante justice.
Justin Greene =:
One of the less likely prolific killers, Justin draws most of his success from that very trait; he looks harmless, and in the moment he tends to act it, too, right up until he doesn't. Still, the first impression can be the strongest, and in Justin's case his very first impulse was to crack Benny's skull. What he brings in terms of base, instinctual violence, however, he pays off in terms of catching the other side of fights. Justin has been so badly messed up by now that there's a small but not insignificant chance he simply drops dead from the punishment he's received. Time will tell how it goes, but it seems unlikely he has it in him to adjust course to compensate for his diminished abilities—he certainly has not proven overly adaptable so far.
For Justin, success looks like finding people too stupid to take him seriously or too injured to overpower him. This bears a certain resemblance to the Blaise situation, but Justin's horrible injuries may actually give him a leg up. He's made his way so far by playing at weakness, and while actual weakness is an unfortunate substitute, it still can do the trick in a pinch, and is responsible for two of his last three kills. What bodes less well for him is continued action and continued prominence; maybe a quarter of the remaining game knows exactly who he is and what he's done, and if he meets any of those people on even terms he's likely screwed. It might actually be in his favor to lapse into a coma for a day or so, so he doesn't get in his own way by picking still more pointless battles.
Katelynne Kirkpatrick =:
Katelynne's story is one of overcoming adversity, but an argument can certainly be made that she did so entirely in spite of herself. After considering hurling herself to her death in the opening stages, she was misled and taken advantage of by Quinn and Blaise, surviving through a combination of the intervention of others and being too worthless to kill—an impression certainly not dispelled by the significant mistakes she made leading directly to Bert's death. But after joining up with Princess, and folding into a larger group, Katelynne was able to find her footing to a greater degree, forging actual emotional bonds and finding herself a valued member of the team. That's all over now, however. She's the last survivor of her alliance, paired only with newcomer Marco, who she is not particularly close to. It's a tough predicament, but not an insurmountable one.
The question, of course, is this: did the group change Katelynne for the better, or merely enable her best side to show through? She should certainly hope for the former, because if she's going to last, she'll have to pull out the stops and remain focused for the rest of the game. Poor equipment, a bad provision situation, and a noted tendency to fall afoul of nefarious forces work against Katelynne. Heart, one of the best allies in play, and these periodic flashes of cleverness and inspiration are her tools. She's unlikely to rise above the middle of the pack unless something major happens, but she could easily plummet in the rankings if it starts to look like all the substance under the surface died along with Princess.
Katrina Lavell -:
Once upon a time, it seemed like Katrina had potential. A bad turn on the first day saw her kill an ally by accident, and from that point on she devoted herself to making things right... or so she claimed. Her plans, ambitions, and process all pointed to a possible much darker path, however, one in which she was using an ostensibly-selfless aim to cover up a consolidation of power and to mask her intentions, alluded to at various points, to go all the way. Well, that's the past—the deaths of Yuka and Tyrell have, unless Katrina is a far better actress than there's any reason to believe, revealed that the plan too stupid to be real was in fact her ultimate desire. Since then, she's buried her head in the sand as Willow slices bits off corpses, mulls alleged murders out loud, and generally reveals herself to be an unstable, dangerous traveling companion, not to mention a pathological liar.
The first thing that may absolutely fuck Katrina at any given moment, then, is that her closest ally is completely unpredictable and turns on a dime. If Willow decides to kill Katrina on a whim, it's almost certain to happen. Even if it doesn't, Katrina's mental state is not good. She's been despondent for quite a long while, and every moment of real drive or ambition has been to some degree or other focused on the end of self destruction. Her best weapon is almost impossible to wield easily. For her to find enduring success will require a total paradigm shift, monstrous amounts of luck, or the revelation that she's been running the longest and most subtle con of the entire game.
Kelly Nguyen -:
On the first day, Kelly chose to trust and was sent for a swim due to that mistake. She hasn't repeated it since. Clever, ruthless when she needs to be, and in tune with her peers and their secrets, Kelly would be a top contender were it not for the fact that a series of bad encounters have left her absolutely mangled and maimed. Her poisoning trick—one of the most smoothly-executed of such gambits we've seen—ultimately sealed the fates of everyone present, though she only took direct credit for one. She wrangled her way out of vigilante justice, turned her jailor into a willing companion, navigated a web of shifting allegiances, and finally put him down when their paths crossed again. But she has this tendency to approach situations as social first and foremost, and it's cost her far more than I think she was ever prepared to pay.
Take, for example, the hand that was roughly hacked off in that fight with Lucas. Even aside from the loss of capability represented by such a crippling, there are further lingering concerns. Her attempts to stem the blood flow have been haphazard and intermittent, leaving her likely closer to death than she even realizes. There's the risk of infection, which might claim her even if she does make it all the way. And this is not unique; the hand was badly-damaged even before, much like her face, much like her mind. What's left for Kelly to go back to? How much of her can return? Where so many others saw a bad move end their lives, with Kelly it merely killed her potential and future, but barring a miracle the rest of her will catch up before too long.
Marceline Carlson +:
Here we have the opposite of so many of the stories that have been spun over the course of the game: Marceline rises from the ashes of a hideously dependent relationship and a later harebrained quest for vengeance to show some real promise. When Dolly died, it was likely only due to one of their last conversations touching on that exact contingency that Marceline didn't blow herself away. Her days spent hunting killers with Roxanne at her side were as unsuccessful as they were dreary, with the closest thing to progress being the first serious blow to Kelly, who as we've noted still draws breath. When Marceline finally pushed herself to commit to something more, she lost faith and bungled it. But destiny gave her a second chance, and while it hasn't been perfect, she has laid out the makings of a real path of destruction.
Coming to it this late, naturally, is in itself an advantage, because few others will see it coming. While her prize for Amelia's murder was likely more a detriment than a boon in a number of ways, particularly in singling her out for such mediocre reward, it still doesn't negate the blindside potential, and her picking up Nick is clear evidence of that. Marceline knows her way around weapons, has a mind for tactics, and has a drive to push ever on. Of course, there is an extra wrinkle: we've seen her motivation plummet and her momentum grind to a halt before, and if anything of the sort happens at this late stage, all that work she's done to better herself is just more incentive for her foes to descend upon her like jackals. But as long as she keeps together, she's a serious and unexpected contender.
Marco Hart +:
Where Marceline made an abrupt turn to self-serving violence, Marco—who is rather inextricably tied to her now through Nick—has followed an opposite yet equally promising course. At the start of the game, he was deep in delusion, unable or unwilling to process the fate that had befallen the class, and keen to run from the truth. Reality reasserted itself as he killed Kayla, and he seemed poised to lose control entirely and use violence as a first resort... up until he met up with Nick. In the days since, the two cultivated a deep bond and a supportive relationship, honing instinctual fury into a sort of pragmatism with lingering room for empathy. Their low-profile path served them well for a time, even as they left the caves were they spent so many days, but it all came to an end today, when Marceline forced them from their new stronghold and took Nick's life.
Marco's biggest risk right now is that he is so shaken and disturbed by the loss of his partner that he relapses into mindless violence or shuts down and lets someone get the better of him without resistance. I don't think he will, though. The lessons he's learned and the struggles he's faced don't disappear just because his closest companion is gone, and his intelligence, drive, and legitimate motivation to go beyond this place and find a life he can properly live are all powerful. A quiet game doesn't mean a careless one, and Marco has a tactical knack not to be underestimated. And a slight equipment deficiency means less for him than others, because he's proven himself able to work around it and make do.
Matthew Hunt =:
On paper, Matthew shouldn't be doing nearly as well as he is. Other contestants have varying social games, but Matthew's has consistently been saying the absolute worst thing at any given moment, enraging his own allies, and getting abandoned. At the very beginning of the game, Connor took one look at him and split. After gaining about as much credit as possible by working Faith out of a hostage situation, he squandered all his goodwill through insensitively mocking her loss. A slightly more successful venture with Angie and Shauna ended with both of their deaths. Now, he's poised to reunite with some of those former friends who have the most reason to doubt him.
And yet, in a way, all of that's an asset. Matthew reliably puts his foot in his mouth, but he also reliably manages to get clear of trouble, and he's passably trustworthy when it comes to keeping guard. After all he's been through, he's never attempted unprovoked murder, and he's shown a willingness to do what he has to in order to stay safe, while still holding actual loyalty. He's also armed to the teeth with the fruits of his last big conflict, which gives him a whole lot of value as a pick-up for one of those people being held back only by their lack of equipment. Will it take him all the way? Not incredibly likely—he really does seem deficient in that killer instinct. But it leaves him in much better shape than a number of his peers, and there's always room for him to pivot and surprise.
Morgan Dragosavich -:
Morgan's continued survival seems solely to spite the odds, but despite the temptation to get him out of my hair for good by shoving him to the top only for him to inevitably die immediately, I'll leave him where he belongs. Morgan started his game by being beaten until he pissed himself and then robbed, and while things have improved at points from that lowly origin, the tone hasn't varied too much. He's managed to reunite with friends now and then, including Michael and his own girlfriend, Lizzie Lebowski. The one time both were there with him at the same time led to Lizzie's death, more or less at Morgan's hand, though it was she who fired the final shot. Since then, a broken and uncertain Morgan has followed Henry and Aurelien, all aboard their scheme to find some meaning, in this case by tracking down Michael one last time.
Morgan's carrying a lot of guilt, drive, and expectation, and absolutely none of it is aimed in constructive directions. A quest to search out and rumble with the remaining killers becomes ever more pointless as the numbers dwindle; surely by now it's best to let them take care of each other and lay low to pick off the weakened survivor. Michael is in fact not what Morgan seems to think he is, and we've seen that lead to hesitation already. Unlike Aurelien, Morgan has no particular physical attributes working in his favor. About the only reliable point he does have is his ability to persist against all reason, and while I fully expect that to remain true by this point, it's not the sort of thing you adjust the odds for.
Stephanie McDonald -:
Stephanie has been through a lot, has seen some really major mental and emotional changes, and yet no matter the form she takes at any given moment, the constant factor is her status as a useless lump. While her reunion with Jessica brought her brief happiness, and their separation notable anxiety, the real shifts came after their second encounter and Jessica's subsequent suicide. A broken Stephanie wandered until she was picked up and put back together by Max and Darlene, but all she did with that was follow them into danger, where she failed to help. After she was abandoned, she linked up with Daria, and the two have been playing house ever since, relatively unmolested by outside forces, and apparently uninterested in improving their situation in any material way.
Stephanie lacks in weaponry, mentality, and experience. Her only ally is more concerned with spiting the people holding the remote controls that can kill both of them in a heartbeat than she is with trying to stay alive. Stephanie herself is rather clingy, and seems to be at best loosely stable. Really, what's kept her going as long as she has seems to be that their chosen hideout is just not on anyone's radar—a side effect, no doubt, of the vast island space relative to the small number of surviving students. As soon as she returns to reality, or reality returns to her, she'll likely find herself entirely over her head, and with precious little to bail her out.
Willow O'Neal =:
Now this is an interesting case. Willow is a lying opportunist, but the opportunities she prizes most tend to be those to inflict mayhem rather than those suited to bettering her tactical position. Her early game plan was a reasonably grounded robbery shtick, but since then she's branched into collecting body parts and hurling corpses from heights. Despite her clear social shortcomings, Willow has managed to retain a solid cast of allies, including Roxie, who was killed by a bullet meant for someone else; Sierra, whose heart Willow carved out after the girl sustained mortal injuries; and Katrina, who is too stupid to run for the hills despite the fates of her two former companions. Willow has slowly brought the pot to a boil, and the frog sitting in it has yet to realize just how warm the water truly is.
In her back pocket, Willow has Katrina's completely sincere and utterly misguided belief in the pregnancy scam, which has my vote for the most absurdly hilarious ongoing deception of the entire game. She also has the cleaver she just traded Zach for, which is likely to be of greater use to her than an archaic and unwieldy gun. Her attitude is suitably ruthless... but are her goals? There's a very real chance that Willow chases her tail right off a cliff after those bodies she's been throwing, simply because it seems amusing at the time. She's also been lucky in her targets—while not to the same extent as, say, Blaise or Justin, she has mostly been dealing with suckers ready and willing to accept her misdirection, and if she runs up against a dedicated skeptic or someone equally wily, she may be in trouble.
Zachary Beck -:
The path Zach has charted through the game has been equal parts winding and chaotic. While he at first planned to follow a relatively pragmatic approach, finding shelter and hunkering down, his involvement in the lighthouse debacle saw him blamed for a death he was trying to prevent. This in turn led him to abandon a promising group including a friend, striking out on his own and racking up another kill in equally muddled circumstances. By the time he reunited with the group, they were hesitant to trust him, and further deception and misunderstanding led to him striking out solo yet again, now with less weaponry. Finally turning to active predation, Zach sealed Forrest's fate though ducked the credit, but the harrowing experience seems to have left him more inclined to pick his battles with some care; when last we saw him, he split off from Katrina and Willow after falling victim to the latter's deception.
Zach is the softest of the bottom tier, placed there not for any fundamental deficiency but rather for his tendency towards half measures and walking back his decisions. He got the worse end of his bargain with Willow and likely doesn't know it, he has a handful of enemies still gunning for him, and his reputation as untrustworthy actually predates the island. He might be able to turn it around, and he's had flashes of real inspiration, but for now at least he's someone who's going to have to do more work than the others if he wants to stay in play.