Final Twenty-Five SOTF Recap/Ranking:
As promised, what follows is a slightly more in-depth discussion of each of the remaining twenty-five students, serving as a recap and a summary intended both for those who've busily followed the whole time and for newcomers who were intimidated by the size of the original roster but now wish to get involved. In each entry, time is given to charting the path through the game that the contestant has taken so far, to distilling the essence of their potential, and to speculating on their fate, especially when it comes to paths towards success or failure.
It bears emphasizing that everyone on this list has outlasted well over a hundred of their peers. Each one holds a possible route to the end, and the degrees of separation are frequently small and transient. While the roster has seen fantastic success to this point, nobody can truly prophesize these final days.
That said, each student is given a mark corresponding to their projected prospects: + for those with the greatest potential, = for the uncertain or mixed bags, and - for those with the biggest hurdles to overcome.
Abe Watanabe +:
Abe represents probably the single greatest underestimation of the initial roster, though this was quickly corrected as he made his potential obvious through a string of "liberations" of supplies. A consummate pragmatist, Abe has survived the dissolution of multiple groups, often scurrying away with more provisions and weaponry than he had to begin with. While on the surface, this opportunistic behavior seems to cast him in an antagonistic role relative to his fellow survivors, Abe's other quiet talent comes from his social game. He's proven remarkably adept at talking others down, connecting with groups and riding them until they're no longer advantageous before jumping ship, and his comparative lack of direct violence leaves him with few active foes—his one victim was his own closest connection, and the circumstances can be easily spun in his favor without even lying that much. His low body count also leaves him primed to be underestimated by those who think him easy pickings, especially given all the practice we've seen him put in honing his reflexes.
For Abe, the path to success looks like a lot more of the same. He needs to keep his head down, abandon ship before things go bad, and take the shot when the time comes, without hesitation. The obstacles in his path are largely internal; it is clear that the death and suffering has weighed on him some, and his caution has potential to flare up to an excessive degree, leading to hesitation at a moment he can't afford it. His relatively unimpressive combat track record also suggests that he should not be fighting directly; he needs to close out confrontations with the opening salvo, or else he risks being outclassed. Finally, Abe has a few lingering potential enemies left in this final span, and while Marco wasn't much to worry about back when they woke up, things look fairly different as the end approaches. Nevertheless, Abe is one of the figures in the best shape among those remaining, and can give anyone else a run for their money.
Ace Ortega +:
When it comes to Ace, the story we tell is one of contradictions and perseverance. In the early stages of the game, Ace seemed primed to take a morally clean role, though even this was challenged by his choice of ward. What could be mistaken for Ivy sinking her claws into him, however, would soon be revealed as a slightly different situation: the mask came off, and Ace's more negative qualities were revealed, notably a selfish streak and a tendency towards impulsive action or costly inaction, often directly contrary to that called for by the situation. Leaving a trail of bodies behind him, both those of the girls who tried to help him and the opponents who stood in his way, Ace has emerged as a force to watch, but not one who can be cleanly predicted. Now at the end, it seems clear that he hopes to go all the way, and from all we've seen of him to this point, it seems equally clear he has a chance.
Ace is a physical threat, but not an entirely dominant one. He's seen a lot of action and taken his share of knocks, including several fairly superficial gunshot wounds (insofar as such things may ever be deemed minor) and a serious blow to the head. While he can probably go toe to toe with many of those left, what Ace needs to do if he wants to prevail is pick his moments carefully, not get dragged into constant scraps or diverted by battles without clear stakes. His impulsive nature may give him the edge to clinch improbable victories, but it may just as easily steer him wrong and see him in over his head... and at this point in the game, you don't get to make many mistakes. On the whole, he's in better shape than not, as his path has taught him the perils of hesitation and those pesky morals and social ties fall away one by one.
Anna Herbert -:
Roxanne—as she would surely prefer to be known in just about every context, even one such as this—is currently a girl unmoored. Somewhat uniquely, she spent the majority of the game in the company of Marceline, dedicating herself to assisting that girl in the pursuit of her ends. From the start, this has revealed a certain troublesome lack of ambition and autonomy; Roxanne wants to do something worthwhile with her remaining time, but can't figure out what it is, and she seems to have difficulties viewing herself as the star of even her own show. It's an odd predicament for someone whose stated ambitions otherwise run in a vein I'd almost term hedonistic, and it has manifested in her failing to stand up for herself or use any of the tools at her disposal even under pain of potential death, walking away only because others fail to call her bluff.
Put simply, Roxanne needs to get her ass in gear and decide she actually wants it, or else her survival will be entirely by fluke. She's well-equipped, but that means absolutely nothing if she's not going to use her weapon, and it's unclear she even totally knows how. She's stared death in the face unblinking, but never bothers to try to push it away, instead relying on its goodwill. Well, those days are almost gone, and the only way Roxanne won't be buried with them is if she drastically reassess her approach and mentality.
Arizona Butler +:
One of the two remaining in-game members of the legendary basketball team, Arizona is a natural competitor, driven and capable. She's approached her predicament with pragmatism, but also has displayed a core emotional drive to do right by those she cares about. This kept her in check in the early days, as she first sought out and then stayed with her boyfriend, Jonah, dodging trouble even if it meant abandoning allies. This all changed when the pair agreed to hunt down Quinn, one of Arizona's teammates and at the time one of the biggest threats in play, and while the twists and turns since then have seen her take some major knocks, including the twin losses of Jonah and teammate Shauna, they have done little to hinder Arizona in any physical capacity. If anything, each incident removes another inhibition holding her back.
The problem with being unrestrained, of course, is that you can easily end up biting off more than you can chew. Arizona is competitive and all-in, and while that can see her incredibly successful at feats few of her classmates would ever even think to attempt, such as going gunning for the most dangerous figures left in play, it can also lead to unfortunate misfires such as Garren's killing. And, at the end of the day, forcing confrontations and action means rolling the dice with your life, again and again. Yes, Arizona has a capability in that arena almost unparalleled among the other survivors, but one or two instances of bad luck can do a lot to level the odds. And then there's that despair she showed at the very start, threatening to rear its head again if she ever truly lacks a direction.
Aurelien Valter =:
It's fitting, in many ways, that Aurelien follows Arizona, because with just a few different turns their paths could be swapped. On the very first day, he lost the object of his affections before any reunion could come about, and ever since he's been looking to avenge Dante. This grim task is complicated further by a somewhat cynical willingness to let any other killers who make themselves convenient stand in for the one who took him out, and yet despite such a broad mandate, Aurelien's group has struggled to achieve anything of note; the feather in their collective cap is polishing off Marco Volker, who was just about dead already. The recent loss of long-term companion and group moral compass Henry Sparks leaves Aurelien and Morgan untethered, possibly all set to cause trouble for others, but possibly just to get into it themselves.
What Aurelien brings to the table that Morgan does not, and the reason for his comparatively greater ranking, is physical competence. While he suffered a somewhat crippling wound to the hand while fighting Marco, Aurelien is still fit, driven, and capable of giving somebody a very, very bad day... especially with little left to hold him back. At the same time, we've seen him chasing the wrong ideas before, and his drive for action, vengeance, and efficacy is so strong it is almost inevitable that it sends him straight into harm's way should the opportunity present itself. Ironically, he's probably best served by more of the same: an endless search that never bears fruit, right up until it's late enough that one last blaze of glory is all that's required of him.
Blaise d'Aramitz -:
Blaise has always fancied themself a trickster, but has long worn it so openly and smugly that the only ones who fall prey to them are those who almost want to be duped. Fortunate for them, then, that almost everyone they've encountered has fallen into this category. Not a single one of their kills has come as the result of an actual fight, and many of their numerous victims have simply stood and accepted death—a reasonable enough route to escaping their presence, but not the only option. Throughout, their egotism has spiked to ever-greater degrees, and they seem to be convinced that their apparent success stems from something of their own doing rather than simple capitalization on an astounding string of opportunities... leaving themself the greatest victim of their own deceptions.
What Blaise has not factored in, and one of the biggest obstacles they face—aside from their lack of physical threat—is that in carving their path of destruction they have incensed a vast number of well-armed and vengeful individuals who have also survived until this point. Bluntly, what Blaise needs is for the streak to never end, for everyone else to trip each other up in such a way that Blaise can pick up the pieces. But that isn't their style, and they constantly try to recapture the magic, the illusion of control that comes with being the one to put the period to some pathetic schmuck's sentence. This late in the game, however, there aren't so many easy picks left, leaving their continued success generally a matter of chance... and of course, they have managed to pick up some injuries anyways, which makes their questionable physical capacity an even larger factor.
Christina Rennes =:
While Renz has held a lofty position on the list for much of the game's run, she is now in a similar boat as our next entry. A perennial drifter, she has hopped between groups often, much like Abe, but has failed to extract notable benefit from the process. In hindsight, her best run was likely with the group including Forrest, Connor, and Amelia, because while everyone there was crazy or blatantly scheming against each other, Renz's specific manner let her pass comparatively undetected. Now, she's left to either take a mulligan and try to build up from scratch yet again, or to accept a group that has built-in loyalty towards each other and distrust towards her... and that's if they'll even take her. And whatever the case, time is running out to position for the final stretch.
While weapons mean remarkably little in most circumstances, we're quickly approaching the stage where everyone left will be armed—Renz herself has already experienced this in her recent breakfast encounter—and her social graces are adequate at best. If she'd managed to wrangle something better, she'd get that nifty little plus sign, but, as it is, all the will in the world won't do you any good if you lack the means to put it into practice. More than that, Renz is relatively untested, having experienced and seen little violence directly; her mental state has been highly stable and consistent, but there remains a chance that things will suddenly get too real and she'll just crumple under the pressure. Then again, if she does manage to secure a more viable group or some decent equipment, she's right back to being one to watch. That's her game plan for success: gear up, group up, then throw everyone else under the bus.
Connor Lorenzen =:
Much like Christina, Connor has made it a long way through careful handling of his peers, all the while without ever getting into too much direct personal trouble, bar that one incident where he was forced to perform first aid at the end of an unloaded gun. Rather uniquely, until the most recent moments of the game, Connor has left every alliance on his own terms, often abruptly and without warning. Despite a string of seemingly-promising partners who felt odd in the moment to abandon, here in the final stretches Connor is alive and unhurt and most of them are not. In theory, Connor is exactly where he wants to be, in control and well-prepared, and indeed his path to date has justified his holding the highest rank in the roster since the very first update.
And yet. You see, now, in the final stretches, Connor cannot keep doing what he's been doing. He can't ditch groups before they implode; there are almost no groups left to find. He can't slip off and hide; there are fewer places to go by the day. He's in great physical shape, which to an extent mitigates the equipment problem, and he's charming and socially savvy, both descriptors you'd be hard-pressed to apply to Renz, but what she has and he lacks is that clear killer edge, the willingness to seize a moment and wring the life from it for all you're worth. Connor is a sneak, but he's the same sneak he was back in school, able to walk between mutually-exclusive social groups with ease, but not able to slip a knife into somebody's back. These past days have been a lesson, and I don't think he's learned it yet. If he has? Great. Then we're talking—then he's a serious threat to take it all. But easy street isn't the school of hard knocks, and Connor stands to once again find himself left unprepared courtesy of a sort of affluenza.
Daria Bhatia -:
At present, likely the biggest trophy on Daria's shelf is her having survived close personal encounters with several of the bigger killers in play. The ability to talk a major threat out of murdering you is not to be underestimated, and she's done so despite an attitude which is anything but sycophantic. Aside from that, Daria's primary goal has been spiting those in power, doing whatever she can to be boring, to express disrespect for the very concept of the game, to live a life worth living regardless of her circumstances. In theory, there are worse ways to make a statement, not to mention substantially more suicidal ones, but in practice this all means that Daria has no real resources, a limited understanding of the arena, and a goal which is seemingly incompatible with survival. And you never know when she's going to decide to go out in a blaze of impotent protest glory.
All this, of course, means her odds of being the ultimate survivor are quite poor indeed. It does not, however, means she's necessarily at imminent risk. As the numbers shrink and the noose fails to tighten at the same pace, hunkering down becomes a more viable strategy, and Daria is a pro at that. Being boring and disrespectful throws away some potential strategic information, but keeps morale high, and she has so far at least shown enough respect for the rules to avoid actual self-destruction. Her fate will be determined by her ability to keep out of trouble, and by how her ideology interacts with reality when it's finally truly put to the test.
Darlene Silva =:
Quiet and under-the-radar before the game, in her time on the island Darlene has drawn rather more attention. While she hasn't killed anyone at this stage, she set Beryl's downfall in motion back at the beginning of the game, and the ripples from that are still playing out. Since then, she's spent most of her time in groups with friends and acquaintances of varying descriptions and degrees of closeness, often finding herself in a sort of team morale role, but at any given moment there's often this edge of uncertainty. She has at points displayed a certain capacity for violence and cleverness, and as the number of people she legitimately cares about dwindles, there may be fewer things holding her back.
Darlene's greatest asset is likely her status as a dark horse contender; there are probably members of the top twenty-five who aren't even aware she was on the trip. This, plus an unpredictable demeanor and a history of taking potshots at people, leaves her with some real potential to blindside somebody. On the other hand, she's not a big physical threat, has poor aim, is woefully indecisive, and any malice she has in her is pretty sporadic, which means the odds are just as good she fizzles out or coasts over a cliff with her group of the moment.
Diego Larrosa +:
One of the interesting things about Diego is that, while he was in many ways easy to overlook in the earlier stages of the game, his explosion into later prominence should be no surprise to anyone who was paying attention. From the time he saw Ty's first kill onwards, it's been clear that he's had some end in mind, and his willingness to gamble on partnerships with some of the most aggressive, dangerous figures in play just underscores how badly he wants to be the one to make it out. Slowly but surely, he has picked up momentum, stealing his first kill from Lorenzo, finding himself forced to put down a friend for the second, but then breaking through into flat-out unprovoked attacks from a distance. Now, Diego's one of the faces to watch, and at the same time he's one the others may not see coming.
First off, while he doesn't have too many shots left, Diego's grenade launcher is one of the great equalizers in play. A good shot from that, and someone's getting reduced to a faint red mist, possibly from far enough away that they are never even aware of his presence. You can be smart or quick or strong or socially-savvy and have it mean nothing because you were out of cover at the wrong time, and that's something few other contestants can offer. But even beyond this, Diego's secret weapon is that he wants to win, badly. Yes, in theory everyone is chasing that same end, but the only other person who seems to have mulled things as seriously and come to such a certainty is Marceline. Backed into a corner, I expect Diego to bite, kick, and scratch until the bitter end... and sometimes enough of that can push that ending further down the road, maybe even indefinitely.
Erika Stieglitz +:
If you watched the first day and then check out until now, you'd likely be extremely surprised to discover that Erika has become the biggest killer by a substantial margin. A slow start, focused seemingly on helping others, was undercut even at the time by nebulous motives and shifty behavior, as Erika planted the seeds that led to numerous other students' undoing, though this was easy enough to miss for the casual viewer. When she finally got her hands on a weapon with real potential, Erika revved up to an almost unstoppable pace, often dispatching her foes from a distance or prevailing against steep odds. This continued unabated until she started to take some punishment in return, and a pair of painful injuries coupled with a traumatizing attempt to put down a friend seem to have at least momentarily tempered her violent impulses, though the fact remains that she has proven herself time and again.
Erika is most likely the pound-for-pound greatest threat in a straight up fight with enough room to shoot. One of the few students who really knows her way around guns, Erika takes this a step further through her direct experience with violence to this point. Her quieter spell has probably allowed some of her peers to get complacent, and while she's surely mortal like anyone else—especially should she fall afoul of an ambush—her capacity for devastation is just as surely not so diminished as might be thought by the tapering of murders. Indeed, there's a real chance she's been acting strategically, keeping an ally close at hand while she recuperates, conserves her strength, and readies herself for the final push.
Faith Marshal-Mackenzie +:
Faith is one of the three remaining students who have been on the top of my list since the first day, and she has more in common with Arizona than she does with Connor by now. That is, of course, not even touching the direct comparison she and the latter are so helpfully drawing for us at the time of this writing. Faith's story has been one of disadvantages and setbacks, as she was robbed, taken captive, and shunted from group to group without ever getting her feet under her. And yet, for that, Faith retains the strength of character and the go-getter attitude that managed to propel her to a prominent position in the class hierarchy despite a number of her peers not caring much for her at all. Faith is constantly on the cusp of achieving her true potential, and it seems like she too has finally realized it.
And what potential is that? Well, first off, Faith commands a lot of respect from her classmates, whether or not they care for her personally. Her lack of kills to this point will likely work in her favor, too; she's one of the few who could potentially give Erika a run for her money if properly equipped, so that she hasn't done so is more clearly a choice rather than some deficiency, giving her room to prove her intention. And, naturally, it is a choice that only a lack of armament keeps her from changing at a moment's notice. While that lack is certainly a hurdle to overcome, it's not insurmountable, especially for one so hard to keep down as Faith, and even if she clings to the righteous path, she represents a legitimate threat for the more predatory of her opponents.
Garnet Barnes =:
Don't let Garnet's recent partnership with Erika fool you, she's anything but a simple and willing accessory to murder. To understand how she fell into her current predicament, I think one has to go all the way back to the start of the game, when Garnet set out to bring the violence to a halt. While an opportunity to put her theories to the test came quickly, she found herself unable to cross into killing even in order to stop killing, and this failing has dogged her ever since, as time and again she seizes upon a new target and time and again she finds that, if she won't bring things to a terminal conclusion, she has little else in the tank. Her current state, then, lands somewhere between acceptance and custody; she was not trying to kill, cripple, or rob Erika, yet at the same time for the duration of their association, Erika did not kill. Has Garnet, then, finally figured it out on some level? And what does her departure mean?
But of course, the catch is that a total unwillingness to kill leaves one up a creek when the point of the game is killing each other. While this could see Garnet written off, however, I think that would be a little simplistic; sure it may well be her undoing, but she's proven surprisingly malleable and adaptable in the past. She finally did pull the trigger when faced with Yuka, and that frustration and desperation to make an impact isn't going to get smaller with time. I think the hardest part for Garnet may be the idea that her efforts could come to nothing, that she could debase herself yet still have it be for naught. Run the clock low enough, and those worries get fainter, and while I don't think she has a blatant murder in her, I'd not be surprised to see her manage one especially opportune moment of vigilante justice.
Justin Greene =:
One of the less likely prolific killers, Justin draws most of his success from that very trait; he looks harmless, and in the moment he tends to act it, too, right up until he doesn't. Still, the first impression can be the strongest, and in Justin's case his very first impulse was to crack Benny's skull. What he brings in terms of base, instinctual violence, however, he pays off in terms of catching the other side of fights. Justin has been so badly messed up by now that there's a small but not insignificant chance he simply drops dead from the punishment he's received. Time will tell how it goes, but it seems unlikely he has it in him to adjust course to compensate for his diminished abilities—he certainly has not proven overly adaptable so far.
For Justin, success looks like finding people too stupid to take him seriously or too injured to overpower him. This bears a certain resemblance to the Blaise situation, but Justin's horrible injuries may actually give him a leg up. He's made his way so far by playing at weakness, and while actual weakness is an unfortunate substitute, it still can do the trick in a pinch, and is responsible for two of his last three kills. What bodes less well for him is continued action and continued prominence; maybe a quarter of the remaining game knows exactly who he is and what he's done, and if he meets any of those people on even terms he's likely screwed. It might actually be in his favor to lapse into a coma for a day or so, so he doesn't get in his own way by picking still more pointless battles.
Katelynne Kirkpatrick =:
Katelynne's story is one of overcoming adversity, but an argument can certainly be made that she did so entirely in spite of herself. After considering hurling herself to her death in the opening stages, she was misled and taken advantage of by Quinn and Blaise, surviving through a combination of the intervention of others and being too worthless to kill—an impression certainly not dispelled by the significant mistakes she made leading directly to Bert's death. But after joining up with Princess, and folding into a larger group, Katelynne was able to find her footing to a greater degree, forging actual emotional bonds and finding herself a valued member of the team. That's all over now, however. She's the last survivor of her alliance, paired only with newcomer Marco, who she is not particularly close to. It's a tough predicament, but not an insurmountable one.
The question, of course, is this: did the group change Katelynne for the better, or merely enable her best side to show through? She should certainly hope for the former, because if she's going to last, she'll have to pull out the stops and remain focused for the rest of the game. Poor equipment, a bad provision situation, and a noted tendency to fall afoul of nefarious forces work against Katelynne. Heart, one of the best allies in play, and these periodic flashes of cleverness and inspiration are her tools. She's unlikely to rise above the middle of the pack unless something major happens, but she could easily plummet in the rankings if it starts to look like all the substance under the surface died along with Princess.
Katrina Lavell -:
Once upon a time, it seemed like Katrina had potential. A bad turn on the first day saw her kill an ally by accident, and from that point on she devoted herself to making things right... or so she claimed. Her plans, ambitions, and process all pointed to a possible much darker path, however, one in which she was using an ostensibly-selfless aim to cover up a consolidation of power and to mask her intentions, alluded to at various points, to go all the way. Well, that's the past—the deaths of Yuka and Tyrell have, unless Katrina is a far better actress than there's any reason to believe, revealed that the plan too stupid to be real was in fact her ultimate desire. Since then, she's buried her head in the sand as Willow slices bits off corpses, mulls alleged murders out loud, and generally reveals herself to be an unstable, dangerous traveling companion, not to mention a pathological liar.
The first thing that may absolutely fuck Katrina at any given moment, then, is that her closest ally is completely unpredictable and turns on a dime. If Willow decides to kill Katrina on a whim, it's almost certain to happen. Even if it doesn't, Katrina's mental state is not good. She's been despondent for quite a long while, and every moment of real drive or ambition has been to some degree or other focused on the end of self destruction. Her best weapon is almost impossible to wield easily. For her to find enduring success will require a total paradigm shift, monstrous amounts of luck, or the revelation that she's been running the longest and most subtle con of the entire game.
Kelly Nguyen -:
On the first day, Kelly chose to trust and was sent for a swim due to that mistake. She hasn't repeated it since. Clever, ruthless when she needs to be, and in tune with her peers and their secrets, Kelly would be a top contender were it not for the fact that a series of bad encounters have left her absolutely mangled and maimed. Her poisoning trick—one of the most smoothly-executed of such gambits we've seen—ultimately sealed the fates of everyone present, though she only took direct credit for one. She wrangled her way out of vigilante justice, turned her jailor into a willing companion, navigated a web of shifting allegiances, and finally put him down when their paths crossed again. But she has this tendency to approach situations as social first and foremost, and it's cost her far more than I think she was ever prepared to pay.
Take, for example, the hand that was roughly hacked off in that fight with Lucas. Even aside from the loss of capability represented by such a crippling, there are further lingering concerns. Her attempts to stem the blood flow have been haphazard and intermittent, leaving her likely closer to death than she even realizes. There's the risk of infection, which might claim her even if she does make it all the way. And this is not unique; the hand was badly-damaged even before, much like her face, much like her mind. What's left for Kelly to go back to? How much of her can return? Where so many others saw a bad move end their lives, with Kelly it merely killed her potential and future, but barring a miracle the rest of her will catch up before too long.
Marceline Carlson +:
Here we have the opposite of so many of the stories that have been spun over the course of the game: Marceline rises from the ashes of a hideously dependent relationship and a later harebrained quest for vengeance to show some real promise. When Dolly died, it was likely only due to one of their last conversations touching on that exact contingency that Marceline didn't blow herself away. Her days spent hunting killers with Roxanne at her side were as unsuccessful as they were dreary, with the closest thing to progress being the first serious blow to Kelly, who as we've noted still draws breath. When Marceline finally pushed herself to commit to something more, she lost faith and bungled it. But destiny gave her a second chance, and while it hasn't been perfect, she has laid out the makings of a real path of destruction.
Coming to it this late, naturally, is in itself an advantage, because few others will see it coming. While her prize for Amelia's murder was likely more a detriment than a boon in a number of ways, particularly in singling her out for such mediocre reward, it still doesn't negate the blindside potential, and her picking up Nick is clear evidence of that. Marceline knows her way around weapons, has a mind for tactics, and has a drive to push ever on. Of course, there is an extra wrinkle: we've seen her motivation plummet and her momentum grind to a halt before, and if anything of the sort happens at this late stage, all that work she's done to better herself is just more incentive for her foes to descend upon her like jackals. But as long as she keeps together, she's a serious and unexpected contender.
Marco Hart +:
Where Marceline made an abrupt turn to self-serving violence, Marco—who is rather inextricably tied to her now through Nick—has followed an opposite yet equally promising course. At the start of the game, he was deep in delusion, unable or unwilling to process the fate that had befallen the class, and keen to run from the truth. Reality reasserted itself as he killed Kayla, and he seemed poised to lose control entirely and use violence as a first resort... up until he met up with Nick. In the days since, the two cultivated a deep bond and a supportive relationship, honing instinctual fury into a sort of pragmatism with lingering room for empathy. Their low-profile path served them well for a time, even as they left the caves were they spent so many days, but it all came to an end today, when Marceline forced them from their new stronghold and took Nick's life.
Marco's biggest risk right now is that he is so shaken and disturbed by the loss of his partner that he relapses into mindless violence or shuts down and lets someone get the better of him without resistance. I don't think he will, though. The lessons he's learned and the struggles he's faced don't disappear just because his closest companion is gone, and his intelligence, drive, and legitimate motivation to go beyond this place and find a life he can properly live are all powerful. A quiet game doesn't mean a careless one, and Marco has a tactical knack not to be underestimated. And a slight equipment deficiency means less for him than others, because he's proven himself able to work around it and make do.
Matthew Hunt =:
On paper, Matthew shouldn't be doing nearly as well as he is. Other contestants have varying social games, but Matthew's has consistently been saying the absolute worst thing at any given moment, enraging his own allies, and getting abandoned. At the very beginning of the game, Connor took one look at him and split. After gaining about as much credit as possible by working Faith out of a hostage situation, he squandered all his goodwill through insensitively mocking her loss. A slightly more successful venture with Angie and Shauna ended with both of their deaths. Now, he's poised to reunite with some of those former friends who have the most reason to doubt him.
And yet, in a way, all of that's an asset. Matthew reliably puts his foot in his mouth, but he also reliably manages to get clear of trouble, and he's passably trustworthy when it comes to keeping guard. After all he's been through, he's never attempted unprovoked murder, and he's shown a willingness to do what he has to in order to stay safe, while still holding actual loyalty. He's also armed to the teeth with the fruits of his last big conflict, which gives him a whole lot of value as a pick-up for one of those people being held back only by their lack of equipment. Will it take him all the way? Not incredibly likely—he really does seem deficient in that killer instinct. But it leaves him in much better shape than a number of his peers, and there's always room for him to pivot and surprise.
Morgan Dragosavich -:
Morgan's continued survival seems solely to spite the odds, but despite the temptation to get him out of my hair for good by shoving him to the top only for him to inevitably die immediately, I'll leave him where he belongs. Morgan started his game by being beaten until he pissed himself and then robbed, and while things have improved at points from that lowly origin, the tone hasn't varied too much. He's managed to reunite with friends now and then, including Michael and his own girlfriend, Lizzie Lebowski. The one time both were there with him at the same time led to Lizzie's death, more or less at Morgan's hand, though it was she who fired the final shot. Since then, a broken and uncertain Morgan has followed Henry and Aurelien, all aboard their scheme to find some meaning, in this case by tracking down Michael one last time.
Morgan's carrying a lot of guilt, drive, and expectation, and absolutely none of it is aimed in constructive directions. A quest to search out and rumble with the remaining killers becomes ever more pointless as the numbers dwindle; surely by now it's best to let them take care of each other and lay low to pick off the weakened survivor. Michael is in fact not what Morgan seems to think he is, and we've seen that lead to hesitation already. Unlike Aurelien, Morgan has no particular physical attributes working in his favor. About the only reliable point he does have is his ability to persist against all reason, and while I fully expect that to remain true by this point, it's not the sort of thing you adjust the odds for.
Stephanie McDonald -:
Stephanie has been through a lot, has seen some really major mental and emotional changes, and yet no matter the form she takes at any given moment, the constant factor is her status as a useless lump. While her reunion with Jessica brought her brief happiness, and their separation notable anxiety, the real shifts came after their second encounter and Jessica's subsequent suicide. A broken Stephanie wandered until she was picked up and put back together by Max and Darlene, but all she did with that was follow them into danger, where she failed to help. After she was abandoned, she linked up with Daria, and the two have been playing house ever since, relatively unmolested by outside forces, and apparently uninterested in improving their situation in any material way.
Stephanie lacks in weaponry, mentality, and experience. Her only ally is more concerned with spiting the people holding the remote controls that can kill both of them in a heartbeat than she is with trying to stay alive. Stephanie herself is rather clingy, and seems to be at best loosely stable. Really, what's kept her going as long as she has seems to be that their chosen hideout is just not on anyone's radar—a side effect, no doubt, of the vast island space relative to the small number of surviving students. As soon as she returns to reality, or reality returns to her, she'll likely find herself entirely over her head, and with precious little to bail her out.
Willow O'Neal =:
Now this is an interesting case. Willow is a lying opportunist, but the opportunities she prizes most tend to be those to inflict mayhem rather than those suited to bettering her tactical position. Her early game plan was a reasonably grounded robbery shtick, but since then she's branched into collecting body parts and hurling corpses from heights. Despite her clear social shortcomings, Willow has managed to retain a solid cast of allies, including Roxie, who was killed by a bullet meant for someone else; Sierra, whose heart Willow carved out after the girl sustained mortal injuries; and Katrina, who is too stupid to run for the hills despite the fates of her two former companions. Willow has slowly brought the pot to a boil, and the frog sitting in it has yet to realize just how warm the water truly is.
In her back pocket, Willow has Katrina's completely sincere and utterly misguided belief in the pregnancy scam, which has my vote for the most absurdly hilarious ongoing deception of the entire game. She also has the cleaver she just traded Zach for, which is likely to be of greater use to her than an archaic and unwieldy gun. Her attitude is suitably ruthless... but are her goals? There's a very real chance that Willow chases her tail right off a cliff after those bodies she's been throwing, simply because it seems amusing at the time. She's also been lucky in her targets—while not to the same extent as, say, Blaise or Justin, she has mostly been dealing with suckers ready and willing to accept her misdirection, and if she runs up against a dedicated skeptic or someone equally wily, she may be in trouble.
Zachary Beck -:
The path Zach has charted through the game has been equal parts winding and chaotic. While he at first planned to follow a relatively pragmatic approach, finding shelter and hunkering down, his involvement in the lighthouse debacle saw him blamed for a death he was trying to prevent. This in turn led him to abandon a promising group including a friend, striking out on his own and racking up another kill in equally muddled circumstances. By the time he reunited with the group, they were hesitant to trust him, and further deception and misunderstanding led to him striking out solo yet again, now with less weaponry. Finally turning to active predation, Zach sealed Forrest's fate though ducked the credit, but the harrowing experience seems to have left him more inclined to pick his battles with some care; when last we saw him, he split off from Katrina and Willow after falling victim to the latter's deception.
Zach is the softest of the bottom tier, placed there not for any fundamental deficiency but rather for his tendency towards half measures and walking back his decisions. He got the worse end of his bargain with Willow and likely doesn't know it, he has a handful of enemies still gunning for him, and his reputation as untrustworthy actually predates the island. He might be able to turn it around, and he's had flashes of real inspiration, but for now at least he's someone who's going to have to do more work than the others if he wants to stay in play.
The Other Student Roster
How did you rate in Alton's little black book? (Periodic updates)
-
MurderWeasel
- Posts: 2566
- Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:37 am
-
MurderWeasel
- Posts: 2566
- Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:37 am
Eleventh Announcement George Hunter High SOTF Roster:
This update is in many ways redundant, coming as it does hot on the heels of a significantly more substantial recap of the remaining competition, but for the sake of completeness it exists nonetheless. Most of the rebalancing here actually stems from the Top Twenty-Five update, though as that falls outside the typical purview of the tiers, changes from that time are still indicated as new now.
Additionally, this late in the game, there is no longer really a place for the extreme tiers. Nobody is safe enough to say with any certainty they'll be alive after another day, and so the outlier categories have been removed and their occupants shunted to the nearest tier, if they still survive.
Based on past versions and the number of students remaining, we can estimate that the game has somewhere between two and four days left. Of course, nothing is ever certain; a dedicated enough group in the late stages could stall things quite a bit, and we do know that the broadcast began later than usual this cycle, which might suggest something unexpected. However, to hit such a point would likely require the death or functional elimination of at least half the remaining students, which would bring the size down to such a point as to render the roster of limited remaining use.
There will be a final overall discussion of the roster's success shortly before Endgame, potentially paired with musings on the finalists. For now, however, we turn to those few who still have a shot of making it there.
Favored:
The Highly Favored tier is retired as of now, with those who were in it either demoted or dead (Connor, in fact, received a two-tier soft demotion in the Recap—thoroughly earned, as we've seen). The Favored are now those who have an edge, in mentality, armament, or ideally both. How much of an edge, however, is pretty variable. By and large, everyone here could die at any moment and it would be at worst a moderate upset. It's late enough that we'll be losing a significant portion of the game each day even if everyone plays cleanly, and the Favored aren't immune to that, merely better insulated.
Average:
These are the ones who are hard to call. Everyone here has potential to be a breakout success, but could just as easily crumble in a particularly unceremonious way. Generally speaking, everyone at this tier lacks some core aspect of temperament or armament, but has enough of a killer edge or sufficient firepower to still have a passable chance, even of causing an upset against one of the favorites.
Unfavored:
These students aren't doomed—not anymore, at least. They are, however, at a notable disadvantage when compared to their peers. While the Average students have some lack in either disposition or equipment, the Unfavored go a step further, having precious little to recommend them, or else factors working against them so great that they counteract any positives they may be perceived to possess.
Dearly Departed:
There's a certain value to be found in analyzing predictions and their level of accuracy. There is perhaps a measure of worth in the sentiment of bidding former acquaintances adieu. This is the last word on those who fell since the last check-in.
This update is in many ways redundant, coming as it does hot on the heels of a significantly more substantial recap of the remaining competition, but for the sake of completeness it exists nonetheless. Most of the rebalancing here actually stems from the Top Twenty-Five update, though as that falls outside the typical purview of the tiers, changes from that time are still indicated as new now.
Additionally, this late in the game, there is no longer really a place for the extreme tiers. Nobody is safe enough to say with any certainty they'll be alive after another day, and so the outlier categories have been removed and their occupants shunted to the nearest tier, if they still survive.
Based on past versions and the number of students remaining, we can estimate that the game has somewhere between two and four days left. Of course, nothing is ever certain; a dedicated enough group in the late stages could stall things quite a bit, and we do know that the broadcast began later than usual this cycle, which might suggest something unexpected. However, to hit such a point would likely require the death or functional elimination of at least half the remaining students, which would bring the size down to such a point as to render the roster of limited remaining use.
There will be a final overall discussion of the roster's success shortly before Endgame, potentially paired with musings on the finalists. For now, however, we turn to those few who still have a shot of making it there.
Favored:
The Highly Favored tier is retired as of now, with those who were in it either demoted or dead (Connor, in fact, received a two-tier soft demotion in the Recap—thoroughly earned, as we've seen). The Favored are now those who have an edge, in mentality, armament, or ideally both. How much of an edge, however, is pretty variable. By and large, everyone here could die at any moment and it would be at worst a moderate upset. It's late enough that we'll be losing a significant portion of the game each day even if everyone plays cleanly, and the Favored aren't immune to that, merely better insulated.
- Abe Watanabe: Right now, Abe's playing a smarter game than even he may realize. He has the single person left with the greatest reason to have it out for him in his own group, under watch and guard, and effectively unarmed. Cutting Christina loose how he did before made plenty of sense, but keeping an eye on her now means that even if she is grinding an axe, there's precious little she can do about it, and she might well even become a tool towards his own survival.
- Ace Ortega: Ace, Ace, you are just full of surprises. Of course, the danger with deciding to pursue the prize is, it's so very easy to go off course. I think one of the greatest truths you learn as an observer of the game is that the point is not to win, but rather to avoid losing. An overly active plan of attack may hasten the conclusion, but it may also raise the odds it's not one the killer favors.
- Arizona Butler: Arizona's "demotion" comes due to the elimination of her former tier, but there's a bit more than that at play as well. Quite frankly, she better be crossing her fingers that the announcements give her a better edit than she actually deserves, or all that goodwill from taking out Quinn will slip through her fingers like water as everyone left alive assumes she's just the latest in a long line to decide to go for the top prize in the final stretch.
- Diego Larrosa: I doubt we'll actually see Diego and Marceline team up. They're both too smart for that, too unwilling to trust. But, could you imagine? I would say that, right now, they are the two killers to watch most closely, with far more credibility as serious contenders for the win than any of those with larger body counts. If they were to cooperate, and to somehow move past the obvious hazards entailed, they'd have a very real chance to steamroll their way to the finish line. Of course, the other side is that at any moment they may neutralize each other, with a bad turn potentially even costing both the chance to survive.
- Erika Stieglitz: Of the big killers left, Erika is the one most likely to still have it in her to make a splash. Part of this is due to her laying low for a few days, but mostly it's down to her skill and armament. I suspect that if she ends up cornered, she'll have a hard time making it out—she seems to be slowing down physically as well as mentally—but none of that matters if she takes off somebody's head from halfway across the map again.
- Faith Marshal-Mackenzie: Faith is in an interesting predicament, faced once again with her original antagonist as well as a rather unknown quantity in Zach, but she's probably in better shape than she realizes. I don't think the two mean her harm, and if she plays it right she might even pick up some gear or an ally out of the encounter. Ditching Connor is a good look, especially given how things went for him, but the intent to take a more active role in the proceedings is very different from doing so effectually.
- Marceline Carlson: Marceline is the only one to move up in the ranks this cycle, and unless things go particularly off-course she may well be the last promotion of the entire game. She pairs honed intent with a set of skills that could give anyone left a run for their money, in some ways evoking a less gratuitous version of Erika in her prime. The catch: if things turn poorly in the Diego encounter, all that potential could fall flat, and at this point of the game she could be brought down in an instant even if she plays everything properly.
- Marco Hart: For just a second there, Marco had me worried, but I think he still has it in him. He's grown a lot, but at his core I believe his intelligence and analytical nature remains, and that gives him the potential to go the distance, especially when combined with a willingness to use violence as a last resort rather than an urge to turn to it as the first.
Average:
These are the ones who are hard to call. Everyone here has potential to be a breakout success, but could just as easily crumble in a particularly unceremonious way. Generally speaking, everyone at this tier lacks some core aspect of temperament or armament, but has enough of a killer edge or sufficient firepower to still have a passable chance, even of causing an upset against one of the favorites.
- Aurelien Valter: Aurelien's problem is that he's a ticking time bomb fixated on entirely the wrong end. At this point, his stated ultimate goal—making sure someone worthwhile goes home, or at least that certain others do not—is best served by laying low and letting the violent ones pick each other off, then mopping up the pieces. Maybe gather some allies if he's feeling really industrious; an alliance half a dozen strong would be close to insurmountable. But that's not how he works. Instead, he'll keep up the chase, with every chance of getting himself killed in the process, just to land a fatal blow of his own a day or two sooner.
- Christina Rennes: Christina's used to being in a position to pull the strings in a group, but she must have realized by now that she's the odd one out. Abe has already demonstrated just how disposable he finds her, and with no weapons to her name besides the garbage she's improvised, she'll struggle to turn any fight that goes against her. On the other hand, she's clever, sneaky, and mercenary enough to potentially take advantage of a moment of distraction or opportunity. Still, the cost of failure might be high enough to make that not worth it.
- Darlene Silva: She's coasted into a decent group, and sits in a comfortable spot in the middle. Right now, odds are good that if any infighting kicks off, Abe and Christina will be far too concerned with each other to bother with Darlene, especially since she still has that air of harmlessness, deceptive as it might be. Then again, they're all in Erika's sights, and she is being the loudest...
- Garnet Barnes: Well, I certainly didn't expect Garnet to find her guts this late in the game, but here we are. Now she just has to keep them inside her. If this fight doesn't turn too ugly, there's some actual potential in a reunion with Marco, and I'd enjoy it just for how awkward both of them would no doubt find the occasion.
- Justin Greene: I really strongly considered dropping Justin a rank simply because he'll be lucky to make it two days with the amount of blood loss he's no doubt suffering after being shot repeatedly and hacked up even if he doesn't suffer any more injuries, and if he's dead within an hour of this update going live it won't be that big a surprise. On the other hand, he has that cornered animal viciousness, and in two days almost everyone will be dead regardless of what they look like now.
- Katelynne Kirkpatrick: It's been a little since I've had the opportunity to rail against idiocy being rewarded, but there we have it: Katelynne is given a boon she in no way deserved due to serious past stupidity. Fortunately, it's so far in the past that there's a chance she can actually leverage it into something with the brain cells she's regenerated since being choked out by Quinn. Credit where it's due: Blaise waited to return the favor until it actually had potential to do some good.
- Matthew Hunt: That's two near-misses in a row now. I wonder, if Matthew ever does stumble across Faith again, will it be a happy reunion? Or a final one?
- Willow O'Neal: Willow's coming a bit unhinged, even for her, but in this situation that may be to her benefit. At any earlier stage of the game, a second encounter with Faith would probably spell disaster for one or the other, but by now they both have worse experiences under their belts and there's a certain camaraderie to be found in not actively playing, especially if Willow's able to throw Zach under the bus hard enough.
Unfavored:
These students aren't doomed—not anymore, at least. They are, however, at a notable disadvantage when compared to their peers. While the Average students have some lack in either disposition or equipment, the Unfavored go a step further, having precious little to recommend them, or else factors working against them so great that they counteract any positives they may be perceived to possess.
- Anna Herbert: Her talk with Kelly really laid it out: Roxanne doesn't deserve to be here. The thing is, the game isn't decided by anything to do with who deserves what. Luck is a key factor, but a mentality like hers, a mindset that can look at itself and find a cosmic joke, is not one that can be counted on to adapt and recalibrate, or to laugh all the way to the bank.
- Blaise d'Aramitz: So many pointless, incoherent, half-baked attempts to recapture some form of mystique or power, so few points of success to show for it. Blaise was wise to leave Daria alive, because that means there's at least one person useless and stupid enough to fall for their games again, and it might be too lonely without that.
- Daria Bhatia: For just an instant, it looked like Daria might accomplish something or make herself useful, but of course that was far too much to hope for. I won't be too surprised if she finally throws in the towel before too long and hurls herself into a Danger Zone or smashes a camera. At least that would have some vague semblance of a dignified exit in defiance of the powers that be.
- Kelly Nguyen: Kelly has drifted entirely away from reality. It's kept anyone from shooting her, but it also means she's coming across as totally unconcerned with whether she'll be shot. That's all well and good when you're dealing with those susceptible to suggestion, but find the wrong person and it won't do a thing to save you. And, of course, there's that bloody chunk of bone sticking out of her arm, all ready to kill her at any moment without outside help.
- Morgan Dragosavich: Morgan takes all of Aurelien's flaws and then adds to them a total lack of combat potential or experience and a mentality already deeply shaken by direct personal failure. Oh, right, and some banged-up ribs, can't forget those. Yet he just will not stay down.
- Zachary Beck: Zach finds himself in the unfortunate position of having reunited with the single ally who has best demonstrated a capacity and willingness to toy with and mislead him on a whim. But it would be sort of funny for the prank master to get pranked to death on stream, wouldn't it?
Dearly Departed:
There's a certain value to be found in analyzing predictions and their level of accuracy. There is perhaps a measure of worth in the sentiment of bidding former acquaintances adieu. This is the last word on those who fell since the last check-in.
- Connor Lorenzen: He had a good run, but what ultimately brought Connor down was that he became too reliant on one tool and one mentality. He was perfectly willing to put himself first when all that entailed was leaving others in the lurch or passively putting them at a disadvantage, but never managed to transform that into more active measures; even when he slunk away into the night, not once did he take anyone else's belongings with him. And then, despite a level of physical fitness and potential for violence largely unmatched, he still chose the social option at every turn, right up until he found a situation he couldn't talk his way out of. I suppose that's the risk of pretending to be a good person for too long: if you're not careful about it, you may actually become halfway decent.
- Garren Mortimer: Once again, no good deed goes unpunished. Well, insofar as going after Michael even counts as a good deed—I'd say the jury's out on that one. Garren was so concerned with who he was as a person, with finding some redemption, but he looked outside of himself for it. I wonder, was it all that he hoped for?
- Katrina Lavell: I have to say, I'm pretty disgusted with myself for having given Katrina the credit I did for so long. Well, whatever. Let her legacy be hacking the arm Justin had already had shot up about halfway off. It's as good a pointless accomplishment to hang her hat on as any.
- Manuel Figueroa: Don't be upset. It was a mercy killing.
- Michael Froese: Here's a little something I don't think many people noticed: Michael stopped trying to kill Arizona pretty quickly there. In fact, I don't think it was ever his intent. He threw out some suppressive fire, and he beat a retreat, but he didn't really go for it because he didn't actually want her dead. In fact, he didn't want that enough to put his own life on the line for it. That she didn't notice, that she didn't treat him with respect or listen to his side of the story, hmm... I'm not quite sure what to make of it. But then, maybe it was a mercy in its own way after all.
- Nick Ogilvie: Called it. Okay, I expected a little more heroic-going-down-swinging, a little less stalwart-in-the-face-of-certain-oblivion, but all the same: Nick's weakness was his attachment, and through it he was finally brought down.
- Sakurako Jackson: Despite the injuries she picked up, Sakurako led something of a charmed life. The difference between her and so many others was that she wasn't too useless to kill, but rather too sympathetic. Willing to listen and talk with anyone, she offered an outlet that was valuable even to those who had largely surrendered any semblance of humanity. But Ace didn't understand that, didn't quite know how to work around it, and she was the one who paid the price. Without intervention, I have every confidence she would've survived that conversation.
- Stephanie McDonald: Useless, useless. All that time hiding, and they never thought to come up with a watch schedule? All those days, and they never figured out how to secure a door? All those tense moments, and they never learned to keep weapons on hand at all times? Stephanie, Daria, and Blaise deserved each other.
-
MurderWeasel
- Posts: 2566
- Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:37 am
Twelfth Announcement George Hunter High SOTF Roster:
In all likelihood, this will be the penultimate or even final standard update to the roster. Historically speaking, the closing days of a version have seen the rate of attrition remain steady or even increase, possibly in response to the perceived greater chance of survival; with less competition left, students are able to better rationalize and hype themselves up to commit violence, resulting in a final cascade as previously-passive figures enter the fray.
Whatever the cause, this means that these rankings are of particularly dubious meaning. With the finale traditionally called at the final four or five, over half of those listed will perish beforehand, and even if all goes exactly according to expectations there's a heavy chance that the Favored will not make it through unscathed, simply due to the way the hosts choose to pace the proceedings.
Thus, this is a loose guidepost, a mere suggestion of how the cookie will crumble. Almost everyone here is doomed in short order, and the sequence is mostly down to chance. But let's talk about how it might shake out, and then, when the end truly is imminent, we can talk again about how we reached that point.
Favored:
Nothing is guaranteed, and at least eighty percent of the people listed below are just as dead as everyone else. Still, here at the end of the world, they hold small edges and advantages that could just be enough to see them that one step closer to victory.
Average:
Whittled down to a mere four, this category is home to those who have potential to surprise (or a history of having done so) or who for some reason or another just lack heavily defining traits or have seen their prior standing called into question. It would probably be fairly simple to shuffle them one way or the other, but to do so would dilute what little rationale the other tiers retain.
Unfavored:
These people seem more or less screwed, but at this stage someone could potentially pass out against a tree and wake up to a ride home. Nothing's certain, except that one thing or another makes their survival—even on a micro scale looking purely towards tomorrow—just a little less likely than everyone else.
Dearly Departed:
There's a certain value to be found in analyzing predictions and their level of accuracy. There is perhaps a measure of worth in the sentiment of bidding former acquaintances adieu. This is the last word on those who fell since the last check-in.
In all likelihood, this will be the penultimate or even final standard update to the roster. Historically speaking, the closing days of a version have seen the rate of attrition remain steady or even increase, possibly in response to the perceived greater chance of survival; with less competition left, students are able to better rationalize and hype themselves up to commit violence, resulting in a final cascade as previously-passive figures enter the fray.
Whatever the cause, this means that these rankings are of particularly dubious meaning. With the finale traditionally called at the final four or five, over half of those listed will perish beforehand, and even if all goes exactly according to expectations there's a heavy chance that the Favored will not make it through unscathed, simply due to the way the hosts choose to pace the proceedings.
Thus, this is a loose guidepost, a mere suggestion of how the cookie will crumble. Almost everyone here is doomed in short order, and the sequence is mostly down to chance. But let's talk about how it might shake out, and then, when the end truly is imminent, we can talk again about how we reached that point.
Favored:
Nothing is guaranteed, and at least eighty percent of the people listed below are just as dead as everyone else. Still, here at the end of the world, they hold small edges and advantages that could just be enough to see them that one step closer to victory.
- Abe Watanabe: Abe retains the goodwill of one ally, which mitigates some of the risk brought by offending the other, and shows himself perpetually willing to claw for whatever advantage he can. A quiet game to this point leaves him liable to be underestimated, and he's one of those left who might well truly want the grand prize enough to exceed his seeming limits. He's in a very good spot, though as always this may turn on a dime if he gets unlucky in an encounter with someone ramping up indiscriminately in the final stretch, or if old crimes come back to collect.
- Ace Ortega: Recharged and with another notch on his belt, Ace continues his endless march. It was actually very good too see him not pull the trigger when given an opportunity for rest; with only thirteen opponents left, he needs to conserve strength for the final push rather than scrap with everyone who crosses his path. The tapes unfortunately cut on him in a tough spot, and as was the case with Michael that may well see him dead in an instant. If he pulls through, however, he still has a momentum few left can match.
- Diego Larrosa: Diego's hurting after that desperate brawl, but it should also be a reminder to him: no matter how far you go, you can't let up until you're home. He's still one of the best-equipped people left in play, and his willingness to use that equalizing potential, especially from ambush, make him an enduring threat.
- Erika Stieglitz: Shaking off the weariness, Erika emerges from a quiet few days and steps into the pages of the history books as the most lethal contestant the game has seen. All version, the biggest threat has been that she'll get worn down and overwhelmed. That still may well happen, but as her foes dwindle, the chances of her pulling another multikill out of her back pocket at just the right moment improve. What went down today could be a dry run for Endgame if the cards fall right.
- Marco Hart: Marco shows himself in control mentally, emotionally, and physically. Willing to let Marceline walk despite his stake in her death, and willing to back up his ultimatum in a heartbeat when she tested him, he has the proper attitude to turn confrontations in his favor but avoid them when able. Moreover, he's one of the healthiest left among the ranks of students not deficient in some other respect.
Average:
Whittled down to a mere four, this category is home to those who have potential to surprise (or a history of having done so) or who for some reason or another just lack heavily defining traits or have seen their prior standing called into question. It would probably be fairly simple to shuffle them one way or the other, but to do so would dilute what little rationale the other tiers retain.
- Darlene Silva: She came out of the Arizona incident better than I expected, and still has a group and a gun. On the other hand, her allies are becoming increasingly dysfunctional, and her mental state and goals seem fragile. A slightly different turn, and she wouldn't have walked away from Ace, and even if her little alliance plays it perfectly, I don't see her coming out on top of the eventual inevitable cannibalism.
- Faith Marshal-Mackenzie: Maybe my confidence has been shaken too much here, but crunch time is on and Faith is for the first time lagging a step behind. If she actually manages to get something over on Ace, this demotion can probably be disregarded, but if he turns the tables on her, that speaks terribly to her chances even if she does live through it.
- Garnet Barnes: It's always hard to tell what's happening here, but Garnet hasn't gotten quite enough credit for marching to her own beat at every moment. She's a wild card, one whose intent and capability seem to fluctuate wildly, but who has enormous potential. At her best, she could run all the way to the finals. At her worst, she'll run right off a cliff.
- Willow O'Neal: That injury doesn't seem immediately fatal, though I'm no doctor. Willow contorts and blends to fit her circumstances and companions, but never loses sight of herself. I feel like up until this point she hasn't been letting herself hope and dream big, but that may change. On the other hand, what if that lack of true confidence is all that has kept her in play?
Unfavored:
These people seem more or less screwed, but at this stage someone could potentially pass out against a tree and wake up to a ride home. Nothing's certain, except that one thing or another makes their survival—even on a micro scale looking purely towards tomorrow—just a little less likely than everyone else.
- Blaise d'Aramitz: Faced with the first material challenge of the entire game, Blaise predictably ends up battered and broken. There's a pretty high likelihood that injury kills them on its own, and if it doesn't, they have few tools, a shattered psyche, and the enmity of basically everyone left standing.
- Christina Rennes: That misadventure with the bear trap was pretty inexcusable. Christina has a weapon, now, but does she know how to use it? Will it outweigh the harm she took? Perhaps more pertinently, now that it's clear precisely where she sits in her group—at the bottom—what's her play? It's too late to shift the others' loyalties, and also too late to start fresh.
- Daria Bhatia: All these days, and Daria's still en route to martyring herself. Every epiphany she arrives at sounds promising and vital, but at her core she's an actress, and the role is never her real face.
- Katelynne Kirkpatrick: I half suspect that Marco is subconsciously leaving Katelynne alone and vulnerable as a play to take her death off his conscience. Ever since Princess' demise, Katelynne has regressed, gone quiet and slipped beneath the radar, with hints here and there of reversion to her unfortunate origins. Midnight has come and gone, and that pumpkin isn't a carriage anymore.
- Kelly Nguyen: Just what Kelly needed: more blood loss.
Dearly Departed:
There's a certain value to be found in analyzing predictions and their level of accuracy. There is perhaps a measure of worth in the sentiment of bidding former acquaintances adieu. This is the last word on those who fell since the last check-in.
- Anna Herbert: It was something. Not much of something, but still more than Roxanne managed at any other point. Of course, her being so hellbent on forcing a suicidal fight with a superior foe was bound to end poorly, but she took a moral victory of a sort, and that was the only type of scrap left for her. I wonder if it was fulfilling.
- Arizona Butler: Bad luck, that's all there is to it. There were plenty of looming dangers that would've given Arizona a run for her money, but in this case she just found the perfect combination of wrong place, time, and approach, and she paid for it dearly. I doubt anyone else this cycle cost as many people money.
- Aurelien Valter: Well, he got a small chunk of what he wanted, I suppose, and didn't stick around long enough to properly appreciate the failure side of the equation. But riddle me this: what did almost two weeks of trekking around hunting killers without success bring him that living his best life up until that last suicidally heroic charge would not have?
- Justin Greene: Reduced to scraps and tatters, Justin was finally thrown against someone with enough experience with his tricks that there was no way out alive. It was, of course, entirely his fault; had he left Ace alone in that first encounter, when fighting the boy brought him absolutely no benefit, he likely would've never ended up where he did. That's the story overall: he paved an inevitable path, but was too busy laying bricks to keep an eye on the destination.
- Marceline Carlson: This isn't quite as much of a case of bad luck as Arizona, though there is an element of it in her meeting Roxanne in the first place. Really, though, Marceline's stride was broken by having to put down her longest-term companion, and from that point on her decisions were based on emotions. And as we saw early on, her instincts, the impulses most familiar to her, were by and large self destructive. I think she would've shaken it off with a day or so to recuperate, but that's the stage of the game for you: there aren't days to kill waiting to straighten out anymore. A bad mood at the wrong moment, and it's all over.
- Matthew Hunt: Speaking of terrible choices at bad moments, what was that? Erika wasn't even trying to kill these two, and they weren't hunting for her. There was a chance encounter, they got greedy, and they paid for it. I feel like Matthew got the worse end of the deal because he at least seemed more hesitant to start such an idiotic fight, but the sensible thing to do would've been to throw Zach to the wolves and run, and he didn't.
- Morgan Dragosavich: Morgan did his level best to rage against fate and the odds, and for that he deserves a measure of respect. He made a good showing, truly, but he was never suited to an action-filled life, and at the end he was fighting for any number of things but his future wasn't among them. That's why he failed against Diego, I think; sometimes a final surge can be liberating, but sometimes it means you've already accepted defeat.
- Zachary Beck: Zach overstepped massively. Was it the gun? Does Willow deserve an assist? Was he cocky because it had been a few days since Erika killed someone? Whatever the case, he misread the situation fatally. Faced with the most prolific killer out there, the win condition is walking out alive. Killing Erika is purely a bonus at this stage, and when both boys fighting her were unfamiliar with their weapons, it was one they stood little chance of ever achieving. Nobody ever really gets that double or nothing actually lands on "nothing" sometimes until it happens to them.
-
MurderWeasel
- Posts: 2566
- Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:37 am
Final SOTF Report Card:
Well, there we have our wrap, somehow both sooner and more delayed than expected. That's just how it goes sometimes; you can't always get a neat and tidy number to round things off. Of course, in this case it combined with some unfortunate circumstances of my own to render me unable to provide an update immediately prior to the official Endgame stage, but by the final four it was clearly a two-horse race with a favored lead anyways.
This, of course, brings us to the ultimate result. Despite some protestations, there has been no sweating on my part over Garnet's ultimate success. Why on earth should there be, when this roster has rated her highly for almost the entire game, and never dropped her below even odds? It just goes to show how much bias can sneak into analysis; to many, Garnet was an improbable winner, and so they project that opinion onto this index, regardless of the facts.
But if it were that obvious, if anyone could figure out how this would go at a glance, there would be no reason for this project to exist to begin with. This roster has served to peel back the veil, and now we'll take a final moment to see how well it worked.
As usual, the initial version of the roster is most valuable, as it was used for calculations for longer than all other iterations combined, and it is to this version that we refer unless specifically stated otherwise.
So then, let's start with the traditional overview, now finally with a complete picture. Once more, students' initial rankings are given, followed by the ranking they held upon death should that differ. The color code is Highly Unfavored in orange, Unfavored in red, Average without special color, Favored in green, and Highly Favored in blue. Finally, as an additional piece of information, the average (average being here defined as mathematical mean) placement for each category has been included.
Final Death Order:
159th – Abel Zelenovic (Unfavored)
158th – Toby Underwood (Average)
157th – Christine Bright (Unfavored)
156th – Beryl Mahelona (Favored)
155th – Felix Rees (Unfavored)
154th – Yuko Hayashibara (Average)
153rd – Violet Quinn (Average)
152nd – Dante Luciano Valerio (Unfavored)
151st – Benedict Murray (Unfavored)
150th – Phillip Olivares (Highly Unfavored)
149th – Terra Johnson (Unfavored)
148th – Mikki Swift (Favored)
147th – Bree Jones (Unfavored)
146th – Sapphire Waters (Unfavored/Average)
145th – Danny Chamnanma (Unfavored)
144th – Cammy Walker–Grimsley (Unfavored)
143rd – Ron Kiser (Unfavored)
142nd – Kyle Harrison (Unfavored)
141st – Desiree Beck (Average)
140th – Kayla Harris (Unfavored)
139th – Jeremiah Anderson (Favored)
138th – Mercy Ames (Unfavored)
137th – Regina Petrov (Favored)
136th – Caroline Ford (Unfavored)
135th – Clayton Barber (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
134th – Rhonda Lawson (Unfavored)
133rd – Camila Cañizares (Average/Unfavored)
132nd – Reuben Walters (Favored/Unfavored)
131st – Blake Davis (Average/Unfavored)
130th – Ned Jackson (Average/Unfavored)
129th – Dolores Upton (Average)
128th – Alexander Brooke (Highly Unfavored/Unfavored)
127th – Cheridene Williams (Highly Unfavored)
126th – Layla DeBerg (Unfavored)
125th – Emil Van Zandt III (Average)
124th – Arjen Kramer (Favored/Average)
123rd – Stepney Cruz (Unfavored)
122nd – Tristan O'Hara (Highly Unfavored)
121st – Bryan Merryweather (Highly Unfavored)
120th – Ashlynn Martinek (Unfavored)
119th – Mackenzie Baker (Unfavored)
118th – Liberty Wren (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
117th – Ramsey Cortez (Average)
116th – William Dover (Average/Unfavored)
115th – Joanne Coleman (Unfavored)
114th – Katie Agustien (Average)
113rd – Saffron Fields (Average)
112nd – Brandon Murphy (Unfavored)
Average placement of Highly Unfavored contestants.
111th – Jessica Rennes (Average/Unfavored)
110th – Oliver Lacroix (Favored/Average)
109th – Tom Swift (Average)
108th – Richard Smith (Average)
107th – Ariana Moretti (Favored)
Favored students are projected to live beyond this point.
106th - Coriander Silverman (Average/Favored)
105th - Nikki Nelson-Kelly (Average/Unfavored)
104th - Gervais Frans Lambotte (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
103rd - Nathan Coleman (Average)
102nd - Meilin Zhou (Average)
101st - Bret Carter (Unfavored)
100th - Dane Lennox (Unfavored)
99th - Mike Brown (Average/Unfavored)
98th - Drew Woods (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
97th - Colin McCabe (Average/Unfavored)
96th - Yuki Hayashibara (Average)
95th - Sal Bonaventura (Favored/Average)
94th - Demetri Futscher (Average)
93rd - Lucas Brady (Average/Unfavored)
92nd - Aoi Mishima (Unfavored)
Average placement of Unfavored contestants.
91st - Charelle Chernyshyova (Unfavored)
90th - Aditi Sharma (Favored/Average)
89th - Wyatt Carter (Average)
88th - Tanisha Abbey (Average/Unfavored)
87th - Camille Bellegarde (Average/Unfavored)
86th - Marco Volker (Favored)
85th - Jackson Sullivan (Average/Favored)
84th - Adele Jones (Favored/Unfavored)
Average placement of Average contestants.
83rd - Nia Karahalios (Unfavored/Average)
82nd - Johnny Silva Ruiz (Average)
81st - Lorenzo Tavares (Highly Favored/Favored)
80th - Roxie Borowski (Favored/Average)
Highly Favored students are projected to live beyond this point.
Highly Unfavored students are projected to perish before this point.
79th - Quinn Abert (Average/Favored)
78th - Emeka Gibson (Average/Unfavored)
77th - Sven Vee (Average/Unfavored)
76th - Tony Acardi (Average/Highly Unfavored)
75th - Catherine Zier (Average/Highly Unfavored)
74th - Parker Green (Favored/Average)
73rd - Axel Fontaine (Average/Highly Unfavored)
72nd - Adonis Cohen (Average/Unfavored)
71st - Cecil Salazar-Loveless (Average/Favored)
70th - Megan Summers (Unfavored)
69th - Jeff Greene (Favored/Unfavored)
68th - Max Rudolph (Favored/Highly Favored)
67th - Amber Yates (Average/Unfavored)
66th - Billy Trevino (Favored/Average)
65th - Declyn Grayson-Anthis (Favored)
64th - Tonya Collins (Unfavored)
63rd - Aliya Kimia Nemati (Unfavored)
62nd - Lizzie Lebowski (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
61st - Tirzah Foss (Unfavored/Average)
Average placement of Favored contestants.
60th - Theo Walterson (Favored/Average)
59th - Julien Leblanc (Favored)
58th - Sean Leibowitz (Favored)
57th - Lucas Diaz (Favored/Average)
56th - Jonah Heartgrave (Favored)
55th - Sierra Cook (Favored)
54th - Thomas Buckley (Favored)
Unfavored students are projected to perish before this point.
53rd - Ivy Langley (Favored)
52nd - Myles Roux (Favored/Average)
51st - Camilla Bell (Favored)
50th - Emmett Bunnell (Favored/Average)
49th - Jonathan Meyers (Average/Unfavored)
48th - Yuka Hayashibara (Average/Unfavored)
47th - Claudeson Bademosi (Average)
46th - Tyrell Lahti (Favored/Average)
45th - Lucas Abernathy (Average)
44th - Forrest Quin (Average)
43rd - Madison Springer (Unfavored)
42nd - Helena Fury (Unfavored)
41st - Valerija Bogdanovic (Average/Unfavored)
40th - Paloma Salt (Favored/Unfavored)
39th - Violet Schmidt (Favored/Average)
38th - Teresa Rojas (Favored/Unfavored)
37th - Juliette Sargent (Unfavored/Average)
36th - Shauna Cooke (Unfavored/Favored)
35th - Angie Cortez (Average)
34th - Princess McQuillan (Unfavored)
Average placement of Highly Favored contestants.
33rd - Amelia Fischer (Unfavored)
32nd - Lori Martin (Favored/Average)
31st - Henry Sparks (Unfavored)
30th - Sakurako Jackson (Favored/Average)
29th - Nick Ogilvie (Favored/Average)
28th - Garren Mortimer (Highly Unfavored/Favored)
27th - Manuel Figueroa (Average/Unfavored)
26th - Michael Froese (Favored/Average)
25th - Katrina Lavell (Favored/Unfavored)
24th - Stephanie McDonald (Unfavored)
23rd - Connor Lorenzen (Highly Favored/Average)
22nd - Justin Greene (Unfavored/Average)
21st - Matthew Hunt (Average)
20th - Zachary Beck (Average/Unfavored)
19th - Arizona Butler (Highly Favored/Favored)
18th - Anna "Roxanne" Herbert (Favored/Unfavored)
17th - Marceline Carlson (Average/Favored)
16th - Aurelien Valter (Favored/Average)
15th - Morgan Dragosavich (Unfavored)
14th - Faith Marshal-Mackenzie (Highly Favored/Average)
13th - Darlene Silva (Average)
12th - Abraham Watanabe (Average/Favored)
11th - Kelly Nguyen (Favored/Unfavored)
10th - Diego Larrosa (Average/Favored)
9th - Ace Ortega (Favored)
8th - Marco Hart (Average/Favored)
7th - Christina Rennes (Favored/Unfavored)
6th - Daria Bhatia (Favored/Unfavored)
5th - Katelynne Kirkpatrick (Unfavored)
4th - Erika Stieglitz (Favored)
3rd - Blaise d'Aramitz (Unfavored)
2nd - Willow O'Neal (Unfavored/Average)
1st - Garnet Barnes (Favored/Average)
Analysis:
Obviously, since the last time all but one of the contestants has perished, which rather lessens the impact of discussing who remains. It is notable that a handful of initially-Unfavored students lasted well into the final stages, including three of our top ten, but when the others include two Averages and five Favored students (counting, of course, by initial judgment) there is little cause for concern.
Indeed, the number of Unfavored contestants who surpassed their projected point of demise is only slightly higher than the number of Favored students who fell in the period in which they were anticipated to be safe, and in both cases this number represented fewer than a quarter of the members of their respective categories. This is to say, the projections were correct more than three quarters of the time.
Additionally, all but one member of the Highly Favored students made it to the final twenty-five, while not one of the Highly Unfavored did. While each category had one notable outlier, in both instances the reasons for this status became evident quickly, and stemmed from information unavailable at the time of this roster's conception.
As to the average placement of each category, that will be discussed after the following breakdown of the exact numbers in play.
Initial Rosters:
Overall: 159
Average Placement: 80
Highly Favored: 4
Arizona Butler (19th), Connor Lorenzen (23rd), Faith Marshal-Mackenzie (14th), Lorenzo Tavares (81st)
Average Placement: 34.25
Favored: 46
Ace Ortega (9th), Adele Jones (84th), Aditi Sharma (90th), Anna Herbert (18th), Ariana Moretti (107th), Arjen Kramer (124th), Aurelien Valter (16th), Beryl Mahelona (156th), Billy Trevino (66th), Camilla Bell (51st), Christina Rennes (7th), Daria Bhatia (6th), Declyn Grayson-Anthis (65th), Emmett Bunnell (50th), Erika Stieglitz (4th), Garnet Barnes (1st), Ivy Langley (53rd), Jeff Greene (69th), Jeremiah Anderson (139th), Jonah Heartgrave (56th), Julien Leblanc (59th), Katrina Lavell (25th), Kelly Nguyen (11th), Lori Martin (32nd), Lucas Diaz (57th), Marcus Volker (86th), Max Rudolph (68th), Michael Froese (26th), Mikki Swift (148th), Myles Roux (52nd), Nick Ogilvie (29th), Oliver Lacroix (110th), Paloma Salt (40th), Parker Green (74th), Regina Petrov (137th), Reuben Walters (134th), Roxie Borowski (80th), Sakurako Jackson (30th), Sal Bonaventura (95th), Sean Leibowitz (58th), Sierra Cook (55th), Teresa Rojas (38th), Theo Walterson (60th), Thomas Buckley (54th), Tyrell Lahti (46th), Violet Schmidt (39th)
Average Placement: 61.17
Average: 53
Abe Watanabe (12th), Adonis Cohen (72nd), Amber Yates (67th), Angie Cortez (35th), Axel Fontaine (73rd), Blake Davis (131st), Camila Cañizares (132nd), Camille Bellegarde (87th), Catherine Zier (75th), Cecil Salazar-Loveless (71st), Claudeson Bademosi (47th), Colin McCabe (97th), Coriander Silverman (106th), Darlene Silva (13th), Demetri Futscher (94th), Desiree Beck (141st), Diego Larrosa (10th), Dolores Upton (129th), Emil Van Zandt (125th), Emeka Gibson (78th), Forrest Quin (44th), Jackson Sullivan (85th), Jessica Rennes (111th), Johnny Silva Ruiz (82nd), Jonathan Meyers (49th), Katie Agustien (114th), Lucas Abernathy (45th), Lucas Brady (93rd), Manuel Figueroa (27th), Marceline Carlson (17th), Marco Hart (8th), Matthew Hunt (21st), Meilin Zhao (102nd), Mike Brown (99th), Nathan Coleman (103rd), Ned Jackson (130th), Nikki Nelson-Kelly (105th), Quinn Abert (79th), Ramsey Cortez (117th), Richard Smith (108th), Saffron Fields (113rd), Sven Vee (77th), Tanisha Abbey (88th), Toby Underwood (158th), Tom Swift (109th), Tony Acardi (76th), Valerija Bogdanovic (41st), Violet Quinn (153rd), William Dover (116th), Wyatt Carter (89th), Yuka Hayashibara (48th), Yuki Hayashibara (96th), Yuko Hayashibara (154th)
Average Placement: 84.00
Unfavored: 50
Abel Zelenovic (159th), Aliya Kimia Nemati (63rd), Amelia Fischer (33rd), Aoi Mishima (92nd), Ashlynn Martinek (120th), Apollonia Karahalios (83rd), Benedict Murray (151st), Blaise d'Aramitz (3rd), Brandon Murphy (112nd), Bree Jones (147th), Bret Carter (101st), Cammellia Walker-Grimsley (144th), Caroline Ford (136th), Charelle Chernyshyova (91st), Christine Bright (157th), Clayton Barber (135th), Dane Lennox (100th), Daniel Chamnanma (145th), Dante Valerio (152nd), Drew Woods (98th), Elisabeth Lebowski (62nd), Felix Rees (155th), Gervais Lambotte (104th), Helena Fury (42nd), Henry Sparks (31st), Joanne Coleman (115th), Juliette Sargent (37th), Justin Greene (22nd), Kayla Harris (140th), Katelynne Kirkpatrick (5th), Kyle Harrison (142nd), Layla DeBerg (126th), Liberty Wren (118th), Mackenzie Baker (119th), Madison Springer (43rd), Megan Summers (70th), Mercy Ames (138th), Morgan Dragosavich (15th), Princess McQuillan (34th), Rhonda Lawson (133rd), Ronald Kiser (143rd), Sapphire Waters (146th), Shauna Cooke (36th), Stephanie McDonald (24th), Stepney Cruz (123rd), Terra Johnson (149th), Tirzah Foss (61st), Tonya Collins (64th), Willow O'Neal (2nd), Zachary Beck (20th)
Average Placement: 92.82
Highly Unfavored: 6
Alexander Brooke (128th), Bryan Merryweather (121st), Cheridene Williams (127th), Garren Mortimer (28th), Phillip Olivares (150th), Tristan O'Hara (122nd)
Average Placement: 112.67
Analysis:
Let us begin with the obvious: averaged and lined up, each category ranks from shallowest to deepest drive into the game precisely in accordance with predictions. While taking the mean of this sort of dataset will always have some flaws (for example, in the smaller categories, an early or late exit may have disproportionate impact), for these purposes such concerns are largely irrelevant, or indeed make the success even more impressive. Even with Garren almost cracking the final twenty-five, the Highly Unfavored average a placement almost twenty points below their Unfavored peers. That is a stark difference in prospects.
I'm sure that reminders are unnecessary for the majority of the audience, but the goal of this roster has never been to predict the winner (though it didn't do a half bad job of that either), but rather to address the trends and set appropriate expectations for the odds of any given student's tenure. Achieving a perfect and relatively steady spread shows fantastic success at this goal, particularly when the outliers generally came as surprises to everyone; the roster's more controversial calls by and large paid off and are responsible for creating this success.
Particularly notable is the places where the gaps are the greatest. The difference between Highly Favored and Favored is nearly twenty-seven placement points. From Favored to Average weighs in at almost twenty-three. Average to Unfavored is a comparatively-slim thirteen, while Unfavored to Highly Unfavored is close to twenty. The story this tells is one of a class where the most successful and promising stood head and shoulders above the rest, while the difference between the normal and the disadvantaged was more slight, excepting the truly doomed.
This likely speaks to the ability of the Favored students to compensate for poor fortune. A bad turn may cost anyone their life, but if you're at least somewhat able to mitigate that through cleverness or social connections or physical prowess, that will carry you far. An Unfavored student may be more likely to find trouble or fail at typical challenges, but if they never happen to face those challenges, they won't be materially worse off than someone more Average.
With that out of the way, let us one last time explore the greatest surprises and most obvious (at least to this roster) outcomes:
Biggest Upsets:
Final Two: Here I refer not to the specific finalists themselves, but rather to the calling of finals at a point later than seen before. In this specific case, however, I think the potentially-volatile situation stayed the hands of the game's runners. Unlike in many previous iterations of the game, this version saw a large number of the final students injured almost to the point of immobility. At that stage, calling Endgame and attempting to herd the remainder together would have likely either resulted in multiple collar detonations (which, of course, is something to be avoided for purposes of advancing their message, especially at such a late hour and especially following Daria's showing) or else mandated holding the finals in a location in which one of the wounded was already.
Following the latter path would've created significant risks of its own. A final held around Ericka's resting place would have potentially funneled the others directly into a shooting gallery. While she seemed in no shape to capitalize on such an opportunity at the end, that wasn't something anyone could tell with full certainty, and such a setup would be easy to read as favoring one contestant over the others. And picking Blaise's resting place would've been even worse; the possibility of a second consecutive winner being determined by fluke as the able tear each other to shreds over their unconscious form should give anyone pause.
But the use of a final two did have its own repercussions. I believe that it rather heavily played to Garnet's advantage. She was stronger and better able to handle herself in a brawl. Beyond that, much of Willow's success came from careful management of group dynamics, and this robbed her of any chance to exploit such things. She was forced into a one-on-one confrontation, and for the first time found herself faced with a fight and nobody who would march to her tune.
The Steadfast Stumble At The Finish: Four notable contestants sealed their own fates to a greater or lesser degree: Faith, Marco, Daria, and Ericka (by proxy). While there's an argument to be made that in each case they had sustained injuries that made their success improbable, perhaps even implausible, they nonetheless declined to even roll the dice. Such heavy concentration of self-inflicted eliminations swept pieces from the board that could have otherwise proven instrumental in the final stretch, even should they be unable to themselves triumph. Think of this: would Willow have ever gotten to inflict as much damage as she did if Garnet had a heavily-armed Ericka in tow?
But that's the nature of the affair. Endurance matters, but in short bursts as much as long trudges. A moment of faltering brings everything down, and it's so easy for many to falter when it's the only choice left with a certain result.
Most Predictable:
Those Bleeding To Death Die: While one example is more prominent than the others due to its repeated mention in this roster, the simple fact is that suffering a critical wound tends to be fatal, just not necessarily immediately. Engaging in fights always carries a risk, and winning isn't so simple as merely killing your opponent. You also have to make it out in good enough shape to keep moving, to encounter your next challenge and not fall before it from accumulated harm.
A dire wound almost always carried with it a roster demotion, except in cases where it brought about a contestant's demise before an update could be published. That's not specifically to the roster's credit, however; while there have historically been cases of students shaking off seemingly-debilitating damage, those should be regarded as unusual situations rather than the norm. Everyone knows that a hole through gut means you're probably dead, and in this case, everyone was correct in that knowledge.
Stakes Are High, Fates Turn On A Moment: I mentioned before that, in the later stages of the game, a single encounter can make or break a contestant. The best strategy, then, is to minimize the number and intensity of encounters in the final stretch. This was excellently demonstrated by the majority of the final ten, who managed to tear each other to shreds across a handful of chaotic combats.
You'll notice that the finalists were those who responded to encounters with a more muted touch. Ace was a force to be reckoned with in a straight fight, but Garnet didn't fight him. Willow and Christina held no special love for one another, but Willow approached the girl socially, and when she did turn to violence, she left no room for messy retaliation.
Everyone else brawled and scrapped, and in those messy, unpredictable conflicts, they were forced time and again to take risks, and without fail some of those risks ended in losses. Stack up enough of those, and it's over for anyone.
In Conclusion:
I'll be brief: judged mathematically, the roster was an unmitigated success, far outperforming odds set by so-called conventional wisdom. What matters isn't how many yards someone can rush on the football field, or how skilled they are with guns... or not entirely. Nothing can replace direct personal familiarity, and the most valuable sort of familiarity is that born from an analytical mind.
For the curious, I will pass along my closing thoughts on the final contestants at a later date; I hate to leave a project incomplete, however irrelevant to the aims of most who are reading this. On which note, I assume you have profited handsomely, and will expect prompt payment delivered as previously arranged.
And now, I have a road trip across the country I've been delaying far too long. With this, I bid you adieu.
Well, there we have our wrap, somehow both sooner and more delayed than expected. That's just how it goes sometimes; you can't always get a neat and tidy number to round things off. Of course, in this case it combined with some unfortunate circumstances of my own to render me unable to provide an update immediately prior to the official Endgame stage, but by the final four it was clearly a two-horse race with a favored lead anyways.
This, of course, brings us to the ultimate result. Despite some protestations, there has been no sweating on my part over Garnet's ultimate success. Why on earth should there be, when this roster has rated her highly for almost the entire game, and never dropped her below even odds? It just goes to show how much bias can sneak into analysis; to many, Garnet was an improbable winner, and so they project that opinion onto this index, regardless of the facts.
But if it were that obvious, if anyone could figure out how this would go at a glance, there would be no reason for this project to exist to begin with. This roster has served to peel back the veil, and now we'll take a final moment to see how well it worked.
As usual, the initial version of the roster is most valuable, as it was used for calculations for longer than all other iterations combined, and it is to this version that we refer unless specifically stated otherwise.
So then, let's start with the traditional overview, now finally with a complete picture. Once more, students' initial rankings are given, followed by the ranking they held upon death should that differ. The color code is Highly Unfavored in orange, Unfavored in red, Average without special color, Favored in green, and Highly Favored in blue. Finally, as an additional piece of information, the average (average being here defined as mathematical mean) placement for each category has been included.
Final Death Order:
159th – Abel Zelenovic (Unfavored)
158th – Toby Underwood (Average)
157th – Christine Bright (Unfavored)
156th – Beryl Mahelona (Favored)
155th – Felix Rees (Unfavored)
154th – Yuko Hayashibara (Average)
153rd – Violet Quinn (Average)
152nd – Dante Luciano Valerio (Unfavored)
151st – Benedict Murray (Unfavored)
150th – Phillip Olivares (Highly Unfavored)
149th – Terra Johnson (Unfavored)
148th – Mikki Swift (Favored)
147th – Bree Jones (Unfavored)
146th – Sapphire Waters (Unfavored/Average)
145th – Danny Chamnanma (Unfavored)
144th – Cammy Walker–Grimsley (Unfavored)
143rd – Ron Kiser (Unfavored)
142nd – Kyle Harrison (Unfavored)
141st – Desiree Beck (Average)
140th – Kayla Harris (Unfavored)
139th – Jeremiah Anderson (Favored)
138th – Mercy Ames (Unfavored)
137th – Regina Petrov (Favored)
136th – Caroline Ford (Unfavored)
135th – Clayton Barber (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
134th – Rhonda Lawson (Unfavored)
133rd – Camila Cañizares (Average/Unfavored)
132nd – Reuben Walters (Favored/Unfavored)
131st – Blake Davis (Average/Unfavored)
130th – Ned Jackson (Average/Unfavored)
129th – Dolores Upton (Average)
128th – Alexander Brooke (Highly Unfavored/Unfavored)
127th – Cheridene Williams (Highly Unfavored)
126th – Layla DeBerg (Unfavored)
125th – Emil Van Zandt III (Average)
124th – Arjen Kramer (Favored/Average)
123rd – Stepney Cruz (Unfavored)
122nd – Tristan O'Hara (Highly Unfavored)
121st – Bryan Merryweather (Highly Unfavored)
120th – Ashlynn Martinek (Unfavored)
119th – Mackenzie Baker (Unfavored)
118th – Liberty Wren (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
117th – Ramsey Cortez (Average)
116th – William Dover (Average/Unfavored)
115th – Joanne Coleman (Unfavored)
114th – Katie Agustien (Average)
113rd – Saffron Fields (Average)
112nd – Brandon Murphy (Unfavored)
Average placement of Highly Unfavored contestants.
111th – Jessica Rennes (Average/Unfavored)
110th – Oliver Lacroix (Favored/Average)
109th – Tom Swift (Average)
108th – Richard Smith (Average)
107th – Ariana Moretti (Favored)
Favored students are projected to live beyond this point.
106th - Coriander Silverman (Average/Favored)
105th - Nikki Nelson-Kelly (Average/Unfavored)
104th - Gervais Frans Lambotte (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
103rd - Nathan Coleman (Average)
102nd - Meilin Zhou (Average)
101st - Bret Carter (Unfavored)
100th - Dane Lennox (Unfavored)
99th - Mike Brown (Average/Unfavored)
98th - Drew Woods (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
97th - Colin McCabe (Average/Unfavored)
96th - Yuki Hayashibara (Average)
95th - Sal Bonaventura (Favored/Average)
94th - Demetri Futscher (Average)
93rd - Lucas Brady (Average/Unfavored)
92nd - Aoi Mishima (Unfavored)
Average placement of Unfavored contestants.
91st - Charelle Chernyshyova (Unfavored)
90th - Aditi Sharma (Favored/Average)
89th - Wyatt Carter (Average)
88th - Tanisha Abbey (Average/Unfavored)
87th - Camille Bellegarde (Average/Unfavored)
86th - Marco Volker (Favored)
85th - Jackson Sullivan (Average/Favored)
84th - Adele Jones (Favored/Unfavored)
Average placement of Average contestants.
83rd - Nia Karahalios (Unfavored/Average)
82nd - Johnny Silva Ruiz (Average)
81st - Lorenzo Tavares (Highly Favored/Favored)
80th - Roxie Borowski (Favored/Average)
Highly Favored students are projected to live beyond this point.
Highly Unfavored students are projected to perish before this point.
79th - Quinn Abert (Average/Favored)
78th - Emeka Gibson (Average/Unfavored)
77th - Sven Vee (Average/Unfavored)
76th - Tony Acardi (Average/Highly Unfavored)
75th - Catherine Zier (Average/Highly Unfavored)
74th - Parker Green (Favored/Average)
73rd - Axel Fontaine (Average/Highly Unfavored)
72nd - Adonis Cohen (Average/Unfavored)
71st - Cecil Salazar-Loveless (Average/Favored)
70th - Megan Summers (Unfavored)
69th - Jeff Greene (Favored/Unfavored)
68th - Max Rudolph (Favored/Highly Favored)
67th - Amber Yates (Average/Unfavored)
66th - Billy Trevino (Favored/Average)
65th - Declyn Grayson-Anthis (Favored)
64th - Tonya Collins (Unfavored)
63rd - Aliya Kimia Nemati (Unfavored)
62nd - Lizzie Lebowski (Unfavored/Highly Unfavored)
61st - Tirzah Foss (Unfavored/Average)
Average placement of Favored contestants.
60th - Theo Walterson (Favored/Average)
59th - Julien Leblanc (Favored)
58th - Sean Leibowitz (Favored)
57th - Lucas Diaz (Favored/Average)
56th - Jonah Heartgrave (Favored)
55th - Sierra Cook (Favored)
54th - Thomas Buckley (Favored)
Unfavored students are projected to perish before this point.
53rd - Ivy Langley (Favored)
52nd - Myles Roux (Favored/Average)
51st - Camilla Bell (Favored)
50th - Emmett Bunnell (Favored/Average)
49th - Jonathan Meyers (Average/Unfavored)
48th - Yuka Hayashibara (Average/Unfavored)
47th - Claudeson Bademosi (Average)
46th - Tyrell Lahti (Favored/Average)
45th - Lucas Abernathy (Average)
44th - Forrest Quin (Average)
43rd - Madison Springer (Unfavored)
42nd - Helena Fury (Unfavored)
41st - Valerija Bogdanovic (Average/Unfavored)
40th - Paloma Salt (Favored/Unfavored)
39th - Violet Schmidt (Favored/Average)
38th - Teresa Rojas (Favored/Unfavored)
37th - Juliette Sargent (Unfavored/Average)
36th - Shauna Cooke (Unfavored/Favored)
35th - Angie Cortez (Average)
34th - Princess McQuillan (Unfavored)
Average placement of Highly Favored contestants.
33rd - Amelia Fischer (Unfavored)
32nd - Lori Martin (Favored/Average)
31st - Henry Sparks (Unfavored)
30th - Sakurako Jackson (Favored/Average)
29th - Nick Ogilvie (Favored/Average)
28th - Garren Mortimer (Highly Unfavored/Favored)
27th - Manuel Figueroa (Average/Unfavored)
26th - Michael Froese (Favored/Average)
25th - Katrina Lavell (Favored/Unfavored)
24th - Stephanie McDonald (Unfavored)
23rd - Connor Lorenzen (Highly Favored/Average)
22nd - Justin Greene (Unfavored/Average)
21st - Matthew Hunt (Average)
20th - Zachary Beck (Average/Unfavored)
19th - Arizona Butler (Highly Favored/Favored)
18th - Anna "Roxanne" Herbert (Favored/Unfavored)
17th - Marceline Carlson (Average/Favored)
16th - Aurelien Valter (Favored/Average)
15th - Morgan Dragosavich (Unfavored)
14th - Faith Marshal-Mackenzie (Highly Favored/Average)
13th - Darlene Silva (Average)
12th - Abraham Watanabe (Average/Favored)
11th - Kelly Nguyen (Favored/Unfavored)
10th - Diego Larrosa (Average/Favored)
9th - Ace Ortega (Favored)
8th - Marco Hart (Average/Favored)
7th - Christina Rennes (Favored/Unfavored)
6th - Daria Bhatia (Favored/Unfavored)
5th - Katelynne Kirkpatrick (Unfavored)
4th - Erika Stieglitz (Favored)
3rd - Blaise d'Aramitz (Unfavored)
2nd - Willow O'Neal (Unfavored/Average)
1st - Garnet Barnes (Favored/Average)
Analysis:
Obviously, since the last time all but one of the contestants has perished, which rather lessens the impact of discussing who remains. It is notable that a handful of initially-Unfavored students lasted well into the final stages, including three of our top ten, but when the others include two Averages and five Favored students (counting, of course, by initial judgment) there is little cause for concern.
Indeed, the number of Unfavored contestants who surpassed their projected point of demise is only slightly higher than the number of Favored students who fell in the period in which they were anticipated to be safe, and in both cases this number represented fewer than a quarter of the members of their respective categories. This is to say, the projections were correct more than three quarters of the time.
Additionally, all but one member of the Highly Favored students made it to the final twenty-five, while not one of the Highly Unfavored did. While each category had one notable outlier, in both instances the reasons for this status became evident quickly, and stemmed from information unavailable at the time of this roster's conception.
As to the average placement of each category, that will be discussed after the following breakdown of the exact numbers in play.
Initial Rosters:
Overall: 159
Average Placement: 80
Highly Favored: 4
Arizona Butler (19th), Connor Lorenzen (23rd), Faith Marshal-Mackenzie (14th), Lorenzo Tavares (81st)
Average Placement: 34.25
Favored: 46
Ace Ortega (9th), Adele Jones (84th), Aditi Sharma (90th), Anna Herbert (18th), Ariana Moretti (107th), Arjen Kramer (124th), Aurelien Valter (16th), Beryl Mahelona (156th), Billy Trevino (66th), Camilla Bell (51st), Christina Rennes (7th), Daria Bhatia (6th), Declyn Grayson-Anthis (65th), Emmett Bunnell (50th), Erika Stieglitz (4th), Garnet Barnes (1st), Ivy Langley (53rd), Jeff Greene (69th), Jeremiah Anderson (139th), Jonah Heartgrave (56th), Julien Leblanc (59th), Katrina Lavell (25th), Kelly Nguyen (11th), Lori Martin (32nd), Lucas Diaz (57th), Marcus Volker (86th), Max Rudolph (68th), Michael Froese (26th), Mikki Swift (148th), Myles Roux (52nd), Nick Ogilvie (29th), Oliver Lacroix (110th), Paloma Salt (40th), Parker Green (74th), Regina Petrov (137th), Reuben Walters (134th), Roxie Borowski (80th), Sakurako Jackson (30th), Sal Bonaventura (95th), Sean Leibowitz (58th), Sierra Cook (55th), Teresa Rojas (38th), Theo Walterson (60th), Thomas Buckley (54th), Tyrell Lahti (46th), Violet Schmidt (39th)
Average Placement: 61.17
Average: 53
Abe Watanabe (12th), Adonis Cohen (72nd), Amber Yates (67th), Angie Cortez (35th), Axel Fontaine (73rd), Blake Davis (131st), Camila Cañizares (132nd), Camille Bellegarde (87th), Catherine Zier (75th), Cecil Salazar-Loveless (71st), Claudeson Bademosi (47th), Colin McCabe (97th), Coriander Silverman (106th), Darlene Silva (13th), Demetri Futscher (94th), Desiree Beck (141st), Diego Larrosa (10th), Dolores Upton (129th), Emil Van Zandt (125th), Emeka Gibson (78th), Forrest Quin (44th), Jackson Sullivan (85th), Jessica Rennes (111th), Johnny Silva Ruiz (82nd), Jonathan Meyers (49th), Katie Agustien (114th), Lucas Abernathy (45th), Lucas Brady (93rd), Manuel Figueroa (27th), Marceline Carlson (17th), Marco Hart (8th), Matthew Hunt (21st), Meilin Zhao (102nd), Mike Brown (99th), Nathan Coleman (103rd), Ned Jackson (130th), Nikki Nelson-Kelly (105th), Quinn Abert (79th), Ramsey Cortez (117th), Richard Smith (108th), Saffron Fields (113rd), Sven Vee (77th), Tanisha Abbey (88th), Toby Underwood (158th), Tom Swift (109th), Tony Acardi (76th), Valerija Bogdanovic (41st), Violet Quinn (153rd), William Dover (116th), Wyatt Carter (89th), Yuka Hayashibara (48th), Yuki Hayashibara (96th), Yuko Hayashibara (154th)
Average Placement: 84.00
Unfavored: 50
Abel Zelenovic (159th), Aliya Kimia Nemati (63rd), Amelia Fischer (33rd), Aoi Mishima (92nd), Ashlynn Martinek (120th), Apollonia Karahalios (83rd), Benedict Murray (151st), Blaise d'Aramitz (3rd), Brandon Murphy (112nd), Bree Jones (147th), Bret Carter (101st), Cammellia Walker-Grimsley (144th), Caroline Ford (136th), Charelle Chernyshyova (91st), Christine Bright (157th), Clayton Barber (135th), Dane Lennox (100th), Daniel Chamnanma (145th), Dante Valerio (152nd), Drew Woods (98th), Elisabeth Lebowski (62nd), Felix Rees (155th), Gervais Lambotte (104th), Helena Fury (42nd), Henry Sparks (31st), Joanne Coleman (115th), Juliette Sargent (37th), Justin Greene (22nd), Kayla Harris (140th), Katelynne Kirkpatrick (5th), Kyle Harrison (142nd), Layla DeBerg (126th), Liberty Wren (118th), Mackenzie Baker (119th), Madison Springer (43rd), Megan Summers (70th), Mercy Ames (138th), Morgan Dragosavich (15th), Princess McQuillan (34th), Rhonda Lawson (133rd), Ronald Kiser (143rd), Sapphire Waters (146th), Shauna Cooke (36th), Stephanie McDonald (24th), Stepney Cruz (123rd), Terra Johnson (149th), Tirzah Foss (61st), Tonya Collins (64th), Willow O'Neal (2nd), Zachary Beck (20th)
Average Placement: 92.82
Highly Unfavored: 6
Alexander Brooke (128th), Bryan Merryweather (121st), Cheridene Williams (127th), Garren Mortimer (28th), Phillip Olivares (150th), Tristan O'Hara (122nd)
Average Placement: 112.67
Analysis:
Let us begin with the obvious: averaged and lined up, each category ranks from shallowest to deepest drive into the game precisely in accordance with predictions. While taking the mean of this sort of dataset will always have some flaws (for example, in the smaller categories, an early or late exit may have disproportionate impact), for these purposes such concerns are largely irrelevant, or indeed make the success even more impressive. Even with Garren almost cracking the final twenty-five, the Highly Unfavored average a placement almost twenty points below their Unfavored peers. That is a stark difference in prospects.
I'm sure that reminders are unnecessary for the majority of the audience, but the goal of this roster has never been to predict the winner (though it didn't do a half bad job of that either), but rather to address the trends and set appropriate expectations for the odds of any given student's tenure. Achieving a perfect and relatively steady spread shows fantastic success at this goal, particularly when the outliers generally came as surprises to everyone; the roster's more controversial calls by and large paid off and are responsible for creating this success.
Particularly notable is the places where the gaps are the greatest. The difference between Highly Favored and Favored is nearly twenty-seven placement points. From Favored to Average weighs in at almost twenty-three. Average to Unfavored is a comparatively-slim thirteen, while Unfavored to Highly Unfavored is close to twenty. The story this tells is one of a class where the most successful and promising stood head and shoulders above the rest, while the difference between the normal and the disadvantaged was more slight, excepting the truly doomed.
This likely speaks to the ability of the Favored students to compensate for poor fortune. A bad turn may cost anyone their life, but if you're at least somewhat able to mitigate that through cleverness or social connections or physical prowess, that will carry you far. An Unfavored student may be more likely to find trouble or fail at typical challenges, but if they never happen to face those challenges, they won't be materially worse off than someone more Average.
With that out of the way, let us one last time explore the greatest surprises and most obvious (at least to this roster) outcomes:
Biggest Upsets:
Final Two: Here I refer not to the specific finalists themselves, but rather to the calling of finals at a point later than seen before. In this specific case, however, I think the potentially-volatile situation stayed the hands of the game's runners. Unlike in many previous iterations of the game, this version saw a large number of the final students injured almost to the point of immobility. At that stage, calling Endgame and attempting to herd the remainder together would have likely either resulted in multiple collar detonations (which, of course, is something to be avoided for purposes of advancing their message, especially at such a late hour and especially following Daria's showing) or else mandated holding the finals in a location in which one of the wounded was already.
Following the latter path would've created significant risks of its own. A final held around Ericka's resting place would have potentially funneled the others directly into a shooting gallery. While she seemed in no shape to capitalize on such an opportunity at the end, that wasn't something anyone could tell with full certainty, and such a setup would be easy to read as favoring one contestant over the others. And picking Blaise's resting place would've been even worse; the possibility of a second consecutive winner being determined by fluke as the able tear each other to shreds over their unconscious form should give anyone pause.
But the use of a final two did have its own repercussions. I believe that it rather heavily played to Garnet's advantage. She was stronger and better able to handle herself in a brawl. Beyond that, much of Willow's success came from careful management of group dynamics, and this robbed her of any chance to exploit such things. She was forced into a one-on-one confrontation, and for the first time found herself faced with a fight and nobody who would march to her tune.
The Steadfast Stumble At The Finish: Four notable contestants sealed their own fates to a greater or lesser degree: Faith, Marco, Daria, and Ericka (by proxy). While there's an argument to be made that in each case they had sustained injuries that made their success improbable, perhaps even implausible, they nonetheless declined to even roll the dice. Such heavy concentration of self-inflicted eliminations swept pieces from the board that could have otherwise proven instrumental in the final stretch, even should they be unable to themselves triumph. Think of this: would Willow have ever gotten to inflict as much damage as she did if Garnet had a heavily-armed Ericka in tow?
But that's the nature of the affair. Endurance matters, but in short bursts as much as long trudges. A moment of faltering brings everything down, and it's so easy for many to falter when it's the only choice left with a certain result.
Most Predictable:
Those Bleeding To Death Die: While one example is more prominent than the others due to its repeated mention in this roster, the simple fact is that suffering a critical wound tends to be fatal, just not necessarily immediately. Engaging in fights always carries a risk, and winning isn't so simple as merely killing your opponent. You also have to make it out in good enough shape to keep moving, to encounter your next challenge and not fall before it from accumulated harm.
A dire wound almost always carried with it a roster demotion, except in cases where it brought about a contestant's demise before an update could be published. That's not specifically to the roster's credit, however; while there have historically been cases of students shaking off seemingly-debilitating damage, those should be regarded as unusual situations rather than the norm. Everyone knows that a hole through gut means you're probably dead, and in this case, everyone was correct in that knowledge.
Stakes Are High, Fates Turn On A Moment: I mentioned before that, in the later stages of the game, a single encounter can make or break a contestant. The best strategy, then, is to minimize the number and intensity of encounters in the final stretch. This was excellently demonstrated by the majority of the final ten, who managed to tear each other to shreds across a handful of chaotic combats.
You'll notice that the finalists were those who responded to encounters with a more muted touch. Ace was a force to be reckoned with in a straight fight, but Garnet didn't fight him. Willow and Christina held no special love for one another, but Willow approached the girl socially, and when she did turn to violence, she left no room for messy retaliation.
Everyone else brawled and scrapped, and in those messy, unpredictable conflicts, they were forced time and again to take risks, and without fail some of those risks ended in losses. Stack up enough of those, and it's over for anyone.
In Conclusion:
I'll be brief: judged mathematically, the roster was an unmitigated success, far outperforming odds set by so-called conventional wisdom. What matters isn't how many yards someone can rush on the football field, or how skilled they are with guns... or not entirely. Nothing can replace direct personal familiarity, and the most valuable sort of familiarity is that born from an analytical mind.
For the curious, I will pass along my closing thoughts on the final contestants at a later date; I hate to leave a project incomplete, however irrelevant to the aims of most who are reading this. On which note, I assume you have profited handsomely, and will expect prompt payment delivered as previously arranged.
And now, I have a road trip across the country I've been delaying far too long. With this, I bid you adieu.